Wyoming @ North Dakota State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at North Dakota State · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Wyoming

2-2 · Power #122

final

Final

North Dakota State

4-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

NDSU -17.5

✓ NDSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 13–30 NDSU

✓ NDSU (88%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -21

CloseNDSU -17.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNDSU -21

3.5 → WYO

CloseNDSU -17.5

3.5 pts toward Wyoming

Total

Open47.5

▼ 3

Close44.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NDSU -21 · closed NDSU -17.5 · moved 3.5 toward WYOmodel NDSU -13.5

model NDSU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (145 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -21

CloseNDSU -17.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NDSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NDSU won 28–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Below normal · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 14.7; 47.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NIU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13	20–23	L	O42.5
Close	NAVY vs RICE 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	21–13	L	U45.5
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-13	35–33	L	O48
Loose	JMU vs GAST 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14.5	38–7	W	U53.5
Loose	NIU vs MASS 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-14	34–20	P	O41
Loose	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · loose	-17	26–21	L	O46.5
Loose	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Loose	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Loose	CIN vs M-OH 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-14.25	24–31	L	O44.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-1
NDSU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; NDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
NDSU UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	1-9 10%
NDSUlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−11.3 →−13.4▼ 2.1#120

NDSU−11.9 →−4.0▲ 7.9#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WYO

Longer bar = better

NDSU

#87

Offense

NDSU better ▶

#73

#81

Defense

NDSU better ▶

#24

−1.5 #135

Turnovers

NDSU better ▶

+2.0 #5

58 plays #130

Pace

NDSU faster ▶

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	WYO off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #132	12.3 #12	NDSU
Yards / play	5.60 #96	4.35 #20	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #72	−0.18 #4	NDSU
Success rate	46% #46	39% #59	Even

When NDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NDSU off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #47	20.5 #49	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #78	5.50 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.12 #90	NDSU
Success rate	41% #100	44% #105	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	1.5 #131	5.0 #120	6.5 #133	2.5 #124	8.8 #39	11.3 #95
NDSU allowed	1.8 #8	4.0 #20	5.8 #10	0.0 #1	6.5 #80	6.5 #18

NDSU scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	9.5 #30	13.0 #25	22.5 #24	9.5 #22	3.0 #124	12.5 #82
WYO allowed	3.3 #38	7.8 #76	11.0 #58	4.3 #59	5.3 #57	9.5 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.