San José State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F8 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

San José State

2-2 · Power #111

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

1-3 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

HAW -2.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 25–27 HAW

✗ HAW (57%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHAW -5.5

CloseHAW -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHAW -5.5

3 → SJSU

CloseHAW -2.5

3 pts toward San José State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HAW -5.5 · closed HAW -2.5 · moved 3 toward SJSUmodel HAW -3

model HAW -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 53% (355 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (141 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHAW -5.5

CloseHAW -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 2.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SJSU won 20–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 2.5; 48.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	27–24	W	O47.5
Very close	ARST vs UL 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	30–34	L	O54.5
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Very close	MRSH vs WMU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	27–20	W	U53.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	USA vs UL 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-3.5	22–31	L	O52.5
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	16–19	L	U47.5
Close	BGSU vs CMU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	6–27	L	U43.5
Close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-3	28–21	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WWLL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1
HAW LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
HAW OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
HAW	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SJSU 2–0 HAW SJSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · SJSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Hawai'i 38 @ San José State 45	SJSU -2.5	SJSU W
Oct 28 2023	San José State 35 @ Hawai'i 0	SJSU -10.5	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−10.3 →−10.8▼ 0.5#111

HAW−7.0 →−12.1▼ 5.1#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

SJSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#104

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#122

#80

Defense

◀ SJSU better

#115

−0.8 #114

Turnovers

HAW better ▶

0.0 #65

70 plays #32

Pace

HAW faster ▶

73 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #103	26.0 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #83	6.21 #120	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #109	+0.21 #120	Even
Success rate	38% #120	47% #125	Even

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	HAW off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #127	27.3 #105	SJSU
Yards / play	4.70 #132	5.23 #64	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.04 #111	+0.06 #66	SJSU
Success rate	38% #118	42% #86	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	0.8 #136	5.8 #112	6.5 #135	4.3 #101	12.5 #4	16.8 #31
HAW allowed	4.3 #69	9.3 #105	13.5 #94	3.8 #51	8.8 #118	12.5 #91

HAW scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	3.0 #117	5.0 #119	8.0 #129	1.5 #133	8.5 #43	10.0 #108
SJSU allowed	1.8 #12	10.0 #114	11.8 #70	8.8 #127	6.8 #85	15.5 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.