Fresno State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at San José State

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

1-1 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

San José State

2-1 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

FRES -4

✓ FRES W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 26–22 SJSU

✓ FRES (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -7.5

CloseFRES -4

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -7.5

3.5 → SJSU

CloseFRES -4

3.5 pts toward San José State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 5

Close47.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -7.5 · closed FRES -4 · moved 3.5 toward SJSUmodel FRES -4.5

model FRES -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 48% (150 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -7.5

CloseFRES -4

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 4-point road favorite at SJSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 26–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 3.9; 50.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	37–42	L	O47
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	TULN @ USM 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-7.75	21–3	W	U47.5
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	CCU @ ARMY 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	21–28	L	O40.5
Close	RICE @ CLT 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	28–17	W	O42
Close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Close	WAKE @ ORST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	39–14	W	O47.5
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	ISU @ OHIO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	7–10	L	U41.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0
SJSU WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	2-0

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; SJSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UO	1-1	50%	1-1
SJSU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
SJSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

FRES 2–1 SJSU FRES leads · 3 games since 2023 · FRES has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Fresno State 41 @ San José State 14	FRES -3	FRES W
Oct 26 2024	San José State 10 @ Fresno State 33	FRES -6.5	FRES W
Nov 11 2023	Fresno State 18 @ San José State 42	SJSU -2	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.0 →−2.4▲ 1.6#74

SJSU−10.3 →−8.9▲ 1.4#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FRES

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#100

Offense

Even

#88

#95

Defense

Even

#93

+0.5 #51

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #55

54 plays #137

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #104	27.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #68	5.29 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.07 #71	SJSU
Success rate	39% #116	47% #121	Even

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #88	21.0 #65	FRES
Yards / play	6.08 #73	6.12 #114	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #83	+0.06 #66	Even
Success rate	40% #109	52% #136	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	0.0	16.0	16.0	7.0	1.5	8.5
SJSU allowed	2.3 #19	11.3 #113	13.7 #82	9.3 #114	4.7 #47	14.0 #96

SJSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	0.0 #129	7.7 #87	7.7 #121	5.7 #73	14.3 #4	20.0 #20
FRES allowed	3.5	11.5	15.0	2.5	3.5	6.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.