Cincinnati @ Houston: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Houston · Conference game

Kickoff forecast72°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

4-2 · Power #64

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Houston

6-1 · Power #21

projected

CIN 13%

87% HOU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 60

Model line

HOU -16

HOU 87% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WLWLL	3-3	50%	0-2	—
HOU WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CIN away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
HOU OOUUO	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
HOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cincinnati

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ ISU	W38–30WO
Nov 21	vs COLO	L23–34LO
Nov 28	@ BYU	L14–26LU

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ COLO	W36–20WO
Nov 21	@ WVU	L35–45LO
Nov 28	vs BAY	W31–24WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CIN 2–0 HOU CIN leads · 2 games since 2023 · CIN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Houston 0 @ Cincinnati 34	—	—
Nov 11 2023	Cincinnati 24 @ Houston 14	HOU -3	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.4 →+1.0▼ 0.4#65

HOU+3.9 →+12.7▲ 8.8#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CIN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#21

Offense

Even

#112

Defense

HOU better ▶

#79

+0.8 #16

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #23

66 plays #75

Pace

HOU faster ▶

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #35	21.0 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #10	5.83 #99	CIN
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	+0.12 #87	CIN
Success rate	47% #34	42% #83	CIN

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #13	26.8 #97	HOU
Yards / play	6.86 #12	6.16 #117	HOU
PPA / play	+0.33 #8	+0.21 #116	HOU
Success rate	53% #2	45% #119	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.0 #98	8.7 #78	12.7 #94	11.7 #3	10.8 #8	22.5 #1
HOU allowed	2.9 #23	4.4 #23	7.3 #15	7.6 #112	6.1 #65	13.7 #108

HOU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	10.7 #14	10.4 #43	21.1 #19	11.4 #4	6.7 #73	18.1 #16
CIN allowed	4.5 #62	8.7 #96	13.2 #85	4.8 #71	8.8 #122	13.7 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.