Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #127

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Louisiana Tech

4-2 · Power #83

projected

USM 13%

87% LT

Spread

—

Total

—

model 55.5

Model line

LT -16

LT 87% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	—
LT WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	—

Venue/role: USM away; LT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5
LT OOOOU	5-1	83%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
LT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs USA	L35–42LO
Nov 28	@ ODU	L13–17L

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs ARST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ GASO	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USM 0–1 LT LT leads · 1 game since 2023 · LT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	Southern Miss 20 @ Louisiana Tech 30	LT -3.5	LT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−8.2 →−16.0▼ 7.8#127

LT−8.8 →−3.6▲ 5.2#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USM

Longer bar = better

#93

Offense

LT better ▶

#63

#113

Defense

LT better ▶

#57

−0.5 #107

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+1.0 #10

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ USM faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	USM off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #97	24.5 #75	LT
Yards / play	5.79 #76	5.42 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.04 #45	LT
Success rate	42% #86	38% #40	LT

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LT offense

	LT off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #43	32.7 #126	LT
Yards / play	6.05 #55	6.00 #109	LT
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	+0.21 #118	LT
Success rate	42% #84	44% #97	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USM scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	1.7 #135	8.8 #75	10.5 #113	9.2 #13	4.5 #121	13.7 #63
LT allowed	4.5 #62	3.8 #15	8.3 #26	7.5 #111	8.7 #121	16.2 #127

LT scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	5.8 #79	11.5 #27	17.3 #46	7.0 #43	9.0 #29	16.0 #33
USM allowed	10.7 #136	9.0 #102	19.7 #134	6.7 #100	6.3 #72	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.