Georgia Southern @ Troy: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Troy · Conference game

Georgia Southern

3-4 · Power #82

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Troy

3-3 · Power #98

projected

GASO 53%

47% TROY

Spread

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Total

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model 52

Model line

GASO -1

GASO 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
TROY LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: GASO away; TROY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4
TROY UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs LT	No meeting since 2023

Troy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ ARST	L10–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GASO 0–1 TROY TROY leads · 1 game since 2023 · TROY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Troy 28 @ Georgia Southern 20	GASO -7.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−8.8 →−3.4▲ 5.4#82

TROY−8.5 →−7.8▲ 0.7#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

GASO

Longer bar = better

TROY

#73

Offense

◀ GASO better

#88

#57

Defense

◀ GASO better

#76

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

0.0 #78

68 plays #50

Pace

TROY faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #95	25.5 #83	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #73	5.61 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.07 #66	Even
Success rate	44% #55	41% #69	Even

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: GASO defense

	TROY off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #96	23.0 #62	GASO
Yards / play	5.75 #81	5.09 #49	GASO
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	+0.07 #65	GASO
Success rate	42% #83	39% #50	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	6.9 #55	9.1 #70	16.0 #59	3.4 #125	5.0 #114	8.4 #129
TROY allowed	4.7 #68	8.3 #88	13.0 #81	8.5 #127	4.0 #18	12.5 #87

TROY scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	9.2 #22	8.0 #88	17.2 #49	3.7 #122	3.5 #134	7.2 #136
GASO allowed	4.4 #59	6.6 #61	11.0 #54	5.0 #72	7.0 #89	12.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.