Troy @ Arkansas State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Troy

3-3 · Power #98

projected

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Arkansas State

3-4 · Power #103

projected

TROY 47%

53% ARST

Spread

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Total

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model 52.5

Model line

ARST -1

ARST 53% to win

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Winner

Market

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Spread

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	—
ARST LLWLW	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: TROY away; ARST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3
ARST UUUOU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
ARST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Troy

No more games this season.

Arkansas State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TROY 1–2 ARST ARST leads · 3 games since 2023 · ARST has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Arkansas State 23 @ Troy 10	TROY -7.5	ARST W
Oct 26 2024	Troy 31 @ Arkansas State 34	ARST -7.5	TROY W
Oct 7 2023	Arkansas State 3 @ Troy 37	TROY -16.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−8.5 →−7.8▲ 0.7#97

ARST−10.2 →−9.1▲ 1.1#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TROY

Longer bar = better

ARST

#88

Offense

ARST better ▶

#64

#76

Defense

◀ TROY better

#107

0.0 #78

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

+0.4 #43

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ TROY faster

62 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #96	26.6 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #81	6.14 #116	TROY
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	+0.15 #100	Even
Success rate	42% #83	45% #115	TROY

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #81	25.5 #83	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #64	5.61 #85	ARST
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.07 #66	Even
Success rate	47% #36	41% #69	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	9.2 #22	8.0 #88	17.2 #49	3.7 #122	3.5 #134	7.2 #136
ARST allowed	4.0 #46	9.9 #115	13.9 #96	6.6 #99	6.1 #65	12.7 #92

ARST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	2.3 #131	12.9 #17	15.1 #69	5.9 #76	6.4 #82	12.3 #87
TROY allowed	4.7 #68	8.3 #88	13.0 #81	8.5 #127	4.0 #18	12.5 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.