TCU @ Texas Tech: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Thu, Nov 26, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

TCU

3-3 · Power #36

projected

Thu 8:00 PM ET

Texas Tech

6-0 · Power #15

projected

TCU 14%

86% TTU

Spread

TTU -16.5

Total

—

model 47.5

Spread edge

TCU by 5.5

lean · context

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Spread

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTTU -16.5

Total—

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTTU -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (151 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTTU -16.5

Total—

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 16.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.4 against an average line of 16; 52 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Very close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	31–9	W	U57.5
Very close	PSU vs WASH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	35–6	W	U48
Very close	UGA vs GT 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	44–42	L	O49
Close	WASH vs WSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	24–21	L	U65.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	51–10	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
TTU LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
TTU OOOUO	4-2	67%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

TCU

No more games this season.

Texas Tech

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TCU 1–1 TTU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Texas Tech 34 @ TCU 35	TCU -4.5	TTU W
Nov 2 2023	TCU 28 @ Texas Tech 35	TTU -2.5	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+8.0 →+8.7▲ 0.7#36

TTU+19.6 →+14.7▼ 4.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TCU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#88

Offense

TTU better ▶

#35

Defense

◀ TCU better

#30

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+0.5 #39

66 plays #73

Pace

Even

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	TCU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	17.7 #27	TTU
Yards / play	5.94 #62	5.15 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	−0.06 #11	TTU
Success rate	41% #92	37% #27	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	TTU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #16	12.2 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #45	4.33 #10	TCU
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	−0.09 #7	TCU
Success rate	48% #27	34% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.3 #65	6.3 #106	12.7 #94	5.7 #83	5.7 #103	11.3 #93
TTU allowed	4.0 #46	5.7 #37	9.7 #44	4.0 #49	4.0 #18	8.0 #24

TTU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.5 #43	11.2 #35	18.7 #38	7.7 #33	11.5 #5	19.2 #10
TCU allowed	2.8 #19	6.0 #47	8.8 #32	1.0 #2	2.3 #2	3.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.