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NCAAF · 2026 · Week 12

Utah @ TCU

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at TCU · Conference game
Utah
6-0 · Power #10
27
projected
@
TCU
3-3 · Power #36
22
projected
UTAH 68%
32% TCU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 49.5
Model line
UTAH -6.5
UTAH 68% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Utah 68%
Projected UTAH 27 – TCU 22 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
UTAH -6.5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 49.5
How the model gets there (points from TCU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadTCU rating edge−9.8+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.6=Model marginUTAH by 6.7
TotalScoring ratings49.3=Model total49.3

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
UTAH+14.7 →+17.7▲ 3.0#9
TCU+8.0 →+8.7▲ 0.7#36
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11
UTAH
Longer bar = better
TCU
#14
Offense
◀ UTAH better
#88
#19
Defense
Even
#8
+0.5 #34
Turnovers
◀ UTAH better
−0.2 #85
72 plays #16
Pace
◀ UTAH faster
66 plays #73
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When UTAH has the ball
Even matchup
UTAH offTCU defEdge
Points / game 40.2 #8 12.2 #3 Even
Yards / play 6.80 #17 4.33 #10 Even
PPA / play +0.30 #18 −0.09 #7 Even
Success rate 50% #12 34% #11 Even
When TCU has the ball
Advantage: UTAH defense
TCU offUTAH defEdge
Points / game 24.0 #99 14.8 #12 UTAH
Yards / play 5.94 #62 4.82 #25 UTAH
PPA / play +0.07 #100 −0.01 #26 UTAH
Success rate 41% #92 34% #12 UTAH
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
UTAH scoring against the TCU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
UTAH scored
12.5
#3
11.5
#28
24.0
#10
6.8
#51
9.3
#23
16.2
#30
TCU allowed
2.8
#19
6.0
#47
8.8
#32
1.0
#2
2.3
#2
3.3
#1
TCU scoring against the UTAH defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TCU scored
6.3
#65
6.3
#106
12.7
#94
5.7
#83
5.7
#103
11.3
#93
UTAH allowed
0.5
#1
4.5
#24
5.0
#3
6.3
#93
3.5
#12
9.8
#48
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
TCU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
UTAH7d
TCU7d
Even
Tempo
Average 138 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Utah← @ ARIZ · vs WVU →
TCU← vs KSU · @ TTU →
ESPN game page ↗
Other Week 12 gamesSame-conference games first
Other Week 12 gamesSame-conference games firstAll 66 ›
ISU @ UCF—BYU @ KU—TTU @ BAY—HOU @ WVU—ARIZ @ KSU—COLO @ CIN—OKST @ ASU—BALL @ OHIO—EMU @ WMU—M-OH @ KENT—
All 66 Week 12 games ›