Arizona @ Kansas State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Arizona

5-1 · Power #31

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Kansas State

4-2 · Power #42

projected

ARIZ 51%

49% KSU

Spread

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Total

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model 55

Model line

ARIZ -0.5

ARIZ 51% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
KSU WLLLW	3-3	50%	3-2	—

Venue/role: ARIZ away; KSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UOOUO	3-3	50%	5-1
KSU UOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
KSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs ASU	W23–7WU

Kansas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ ISU	L21–24LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARIZ 1–1 KSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 12 2025	Kansas State 17 @ Arizona 23	KSU -1.5	ARIZ W
Sep 13 2024	Arizona 7 @ Kansas State 31	KSU -9.5	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+8.6 →+9.8▲ 1.2#31

KSU+6.3 →+6.4▲ 0.1#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

KSU

#19

Offense

Even

#29

#24

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#51

−0.5 #109

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #97

67 plays #64

Pace

KSU faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #30	20.0 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #14	5.07 #46	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.27 #20	+0.13 #89	ARIZ
Success rate	50% #11	37% #28	Even

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #33	19.0 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #25	4.87 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #28	−0.04 #16	Even
Success rate	48% #30	36% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	8.7 #30	10.3 #44	19.0 #33	8.2 #24	8.5 #41	16.7 #26
KSU allowed	5.2 #82	6.2 #52	11.3 #60	6.3 #94	2.3 #2	8.7 #32

KSU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.3 #65	11.7 #26	18.0 #41	8.5 #20	9.0 #29	17.5 #21
ARIZ allowed	5.7 #89	4.0 #19	9.7 #44	2.3 #19	7.0 #89	9.3 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.