San Diego State @ Colorado State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast52°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

3-4 · Power #108

projected

Sat 6:30 PM ET

Colorado State

2-4 · Power #110

projected

SDSU 50%

50% CSU

Spread

SDSU -1.5

open SDSU -3

Total

61.5

model 56.5

Spread edge

CSU by 7

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenSDSU -3

CurrentSDSU -1.5

Total59.5 → 61.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenSDSU -3

1.5 → CSU

NowSDSU -1.5

1.5 pts toward Colorado State

Total

Open59.5

▲ 2

Now61.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -3 · now SDSU -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward CSUmodel CSU -5.5

model CSU -5.5

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: CSU by 8.4 pts (open +3, now +1.5). In 2025–2026, with a 8+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 82% of the 50 games where the line moved (53 at that gap), but those sides covered 68.6% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even by a statistically reliable margin.

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (194 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 57% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenSDSU -3

CurrentSDSU -1.5

Total59.5 → 61.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:18

San Diego State at Colorado State: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:17 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward Colorado State. Here is why that matters. San Diego State heads to Colorado State for a Saturday kickoff at 6:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, San Diego State is 108th and Colorado State is 110th. Since the preseason, San Diego State has fallen from 74th to 108th, while Colorado State has held steady around 110th. Kickoff forecast at Canvas Stadium: 52 degrees, dry, wind 6 miles per hour. San Diego State climb about 4800 feet to play here, and the model gives the home side points for it. Colorado State games have gone over 6 of 6 times. San Diego State is 0 and 3 against the spread on the road. On offense, Colorado State ranks 31st and San Diego State 126th. San Diego State has the better defense, 109th to 138th. Colorado State plays at the faster pace. The model projects a 29 to 29 tie, with San Diego State a 50 percent favorite. San Diego State is favored by 1.5, down from 3 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 59.5 and sits at 62.5. Our model makes it Colorado State by 5.5, with a total near 57.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SDSU	CSU	Over	Under	SDSU	CSU
BetMGMMGM	-1-108	+1-110	62.5-110	62.5-108	-110	-108
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-1-110	+1-110	62.5-115	62.5-105	-115	-105
BetRiversBetRivers	-1-110	+1-113	62.5-108	62.5-115	-114	-108
BetUSBetUS	PK-110	PK-110	62.5-110	62.5-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-1-110	+1-110	62.5-110	62.5-110	-115	-105
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-102	+1.5-118	61.5-105	61.5-115	-115	-105
FanDuelFD	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	62.5-110	62.5-110	-110	-110
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-1-106	+1-106	62.5-114	62.5-103	-115	-105
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-1-110	+1-110	62.5-110	62.5-110	-115	-106

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	SDSU	CSU	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-0.5+110	+0.5-130	31.5-108	31.5-112
DraftKingsDK	-0.5+110	+0.5-130	31.5-108	31.5-112
FanDuelFD	-1.5+112	+1.5-138	31.5-102	31.5-120

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

SDSU

CSU

Bets77% 23%

Money32% 68%

Money is 45 pts ahead of bets on CSU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.9 against an average line of 2.1; 61.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HAW @ USU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	10–55	L	O62
Close	FAU @ UAB 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	42–45	L	O59.5
Close	HAW @ UNM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	21–42	L	O60
Close	WKU @ SHSU 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	16–3	W	U53.5
Close	USF @ UAB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	35–56	L	O68.5
Close	APP @ GAST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	41–20	W	O55.5
Close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Close	KENN @ MOST 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	21–24	L	U52.5
Close	WKU @ JXST 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	34–37	L	O56.5
Close	UNT @ TLSA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	35–28	W	U69.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

San Diego State 50%

Projected SDSU 28 – CSU 28 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest

Model line

CSU -5.5

Market SDSU -1.5

Against the spread

Lean CSU +1.5

6.9-pt edge · No edge, context only · 1278-1338 (48.9%)

Total

No lean

Model 56.5 · Just under the 5-point lean threshold (the gap shown is rounded to a half point).

How the model gets there (points from CSU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadCSU rating edge−0.5+Home field+2.5+Travel+3.4=Model marginCSU by 5.4

TotalScoring ratings57.7+Wind 8 mph−1.2=Model total56.5

Signals

The data signal, and 7 trends and market moves behind it

Strong Colorado State ATS trend

Strong-or-stronger ATS leans went 52-45 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

Moderate Over trend

Moderate-or-stronger total leans went 21-19 (53%) in our 2024–26 backtest.

Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.

San Diego State ATS struggles (2-5)

San Diego State have covered only 29% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 262-295 (47%)

San Diego State away ATS weakness (0-3)

Weak against the spread on the road this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 216-236 (48%)

Colorado State 1-3 ATS as an underdog

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 221-216 (51%)

Market moved toward Colorado State

1.5 pts (SDSU -3 → SDSU -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)

Both teams trending Over (11-2 combined)

Their games this season have mostly gone over the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 66-66 (50%)

Total moved up 2

59.5 → 61.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)

Colorado State at altitude (+1.5 km)

San Diego State climb about 4,823 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LLWLW	2-5	29%	0-3	0-2
CSU WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UOOOO	5-2	71%	3-4
CSU OOOOO	6-0	100%	2-4

In 656 games with totals 57.5–65.5, 47% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CSU	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Diego State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs WSU	L13–36LO
Nov 14	vs USU	L20–41LO
Nov 21	@ BOIS	W17–7WU

Colorado State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ USU	W42–37LO
Nov 7	vs BOIS	L21–49LO
Nov 14	@ WSU	L3–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SDSU 23–15 CSU SDSU leads · 38 games since 1978 · SDSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 3 2025	Colorado State 24 @ San Diego State 45	SDSU -4.5	SDSU W
Nov 11 2023	San Diego State 19 @ Colorado State 22	CSU -3.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−1.2 →−10.5▼ 9.3#108

CSU−10.5 →−11.0▼ 0.5#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SDSU

Longer bar = better

CSU

#126

Offense

CSU better ▶

#31

#109

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#138

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

CSU better ▶

+1.6 #4

61 plays #121

Pace

CSU faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #103	43.2 #138	SDSU
Yards / play	4.81 #133	7.89 #138	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.35 #138	Even
Success rate	34% #135	55% #138	Even

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #30	33.3 #128	CSU
Yards / play	6.57 #26	5.70 #92	CSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #19	+0.12 #88	CSU
Success rate	45% #50	47% #127	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.3 #117	5.0 #122	8.3 #126	7.9 #29	7.1 #62	15.0 #40
CSU allowed	14.5 #138	14.3 #136	28.8 #138	8.2 #123	6.2 #67	14.3 #115

CSU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	8.7 #30	12.2 #23	20.8 #21	6.0 #71	8.8 #34	14.8 #46
SDSU allowed	6.7 #110	8.6 #94	15.3 #106	8.4 #125	9.6 #128	18.0 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.