Buffalo @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

2-3 · Power #125

▲ winner

Final

Toledo

4-1 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

TOL -18.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 18–38 TOL

✗ TOL (92%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -19.5

CloseTOL -18.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -19.5

1 → BUFF

CloseTOL -18.5

1 pt toward Buffalo

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -19.5 · closed TOL -18.5 · moved 1 toward BUFFmodel TOL -23

model TOL -23

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 53% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (378 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -19.5

CloseTOL -18.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as an 18.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 23–8 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.6 against an average line of 18.9; 60 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Very close	MEM vs CLT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-17	33–28	L	O56
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	41–27	L	O54.5
Very close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Very close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Very close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	20–17	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-2	1-2
TOL PWLWL	2-2-1	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UOOOU	3-2	60%	2-3
TOL OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
TOL	8-2 80%	7-2-1 78%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUFF 6–6 TOL Series tied · 12 games since 1970 · BUFF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Toledo 15 @ Buffalo 30	TOL -10.5	BUFF W
Oct 31 2023	Buffalo 13 @ Toledo 31	TOL -15.5	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.9 →−19.0▼ 6.1#133

TOL+1.0 →−0.5▼ 1.5#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BUFF

Longer bar = better

TOL

#126

Offense

TOL better ▶

#29

#92

Defense

TOL better ▶

#47

−1.4 #135

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+0.4 #52

73 plays #13

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

70 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BUFF off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #115	25.6 #89	TOL
Yards / play	4.30 #137	4.74 #32	TOL
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.01 #42	TOL
Success rate	35% #131	35% #25	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	42.4 #13	30.6 #116	TOL
Yards / play	6.95 #15	6.18 #118	TOL
PPA / play	+0.27 #29	+0.11 #85	TOL
Success rate	45% #60	38% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	2.6 #121	8.2 #83	10.8 #108	3.0 #122	6.6 #82	9.6 #111
TOL allowed	6.6 #103	5.2 #37	11.8 #69	3.2 #36	9.4 #122	12.6 #91

TOL scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.8 #67	10.8 #43	17.6 #54	11.8 #8	11.6 #6	23.4 #5
BUFF allowed	10.4 #132	7.4 #71	17.8 #122	6.0 #88	6.8 #84	12.8 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.