Florida State @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida State

3-3 · Power #40

final

Final

Miami

5-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -20.5

✓ FSU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 19–39 MIA

✓ MIA (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -16.5

CloseMIA -20.5

Total53.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -16.5

4 → MIA

CloseMIA -20.5

4 pts toward Miami

Total

Open53.5

▲ 4

Close57.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -16.5 · closed MIA -20.5 · moved 4 toward MIAmodel MIA -22

model MIA -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 47% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (224 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -16.5

CloseMIA -20.5

Total53.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	FSU	MIA	Over	Under	FSU	MIA
DraftKingsDK	+20.5-112	-20.5-108	57.5-108	57.5-112	+900	-1600

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 20.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 43–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 57.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.2 against an average line of 21; 64 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ORE vs CAL 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-25.5	63–19	W	O61.5
Loose	USC vs MSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & situation	-18.5	45–31	L	O55.5
Loose	TEX vs FLA 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23	49–17	W	O48.5
Loose	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Loose	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Loose	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-19	38–28	L	O54
Loose	MISS vs OU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-19.5	26–14	L	U50
Loose	ND vs BOIS 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-21.5	28–7	L	U63.5
Loose	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Loose	TTU vs UCF 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-24.5	48–9	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU PWLWL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	2-1-1
MIA WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	4-1

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UOUUO	2-4	33%	3-3
MIA OOUOO	4-1	80%	5-0

Went over in OT. Of 601 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	3-7 30%
MIA	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

FSU 1–2 MIA MIA leads · 3 games since 2023 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Miami 28 @ Florida State 22	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Oct 26 2024	Florida State 14 @ Miami 36	MIA -21.5	MIA W
Nov 11 2023	Miami 20 @ Florida State 27	FSU -14.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+11.5 →+6.8▼ 4.7#41

MIA+21.1 →+24.5▲ 3.4#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FSU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#48

Offense

MIA better ▶

#109

Defense

MIA better ▶

#14

−0.5 #107

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.8 #25

65 plays #90

Pace

MIA faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	FSU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #63	9.8 #1	MIA
Yards / play	6.33 #46	4.16 #6	MIA
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	−0.04 #18	Even
Success rate	45% #54	37% #31	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	49.6 #1	25.3 #85	MIA
Yards / play	8.21 #1	6.12 #117	MIA
PPA / play	+0.50 #1	+0.25 #127	MIA
Success rate	57% #1	45% #107	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	8.7 #30	8.5 #78	17.2 #52	7.5 #42	6.3 #87	13.8 #66
MIA allowed	3.2 #34	1.2 #1	4.4 #3	1.2 #3	4.2 #26	5.4 #7

MIA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.8 #10	18.8 #1	30.6 #1	12.6 #4	6.4 #86	19.0 #10
FSU allowed	2.8 #18	10.2 #115	13.0 #77	5.2 #79	7.2 #94	12.3 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.