Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at SMU · Conference game
CAL 9%91% SMU
Spread
SMU -18.5
open SMU -16.5
Total
55.5
model 54
Spread edge
Even
matches market
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Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenSMU -16.5
CurrentSMU -18.5
Total52.5 → 55.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenSMU -16.5
2 → SMU
NowSMU -18.5
2 pts toward SMU
Total
Open52.5
▲ 3
Now55.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened SMU -16.5 · now SMU -18.5 · moved 2 toward SMUmodel SMU -18.5 matches the line
model SMU -18.5 = line ✓
Opened 52.5 · now 55.5 · moved 3 upmodel 54
model 54
Openline modelNow
Line context
Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 52% (126 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (345 games since 2024)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenSMU -16.5
CurrentSMU -18.5
Total52.5 → 55.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game preview · 1:04
California at SMU: game preview
Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:24 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.
Transcript
The market has moved toward SMU. Here is why that matters. It’s California at SMU, Saturday at 12 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, SMU sits 35th, California 85th. That’s about 13.5 points better than California on a neutral field. Since the preseason, California has slipped from 71st to 85th, while SMU has fallen from 28th to 35th. Kickoff forecast at Gerald J. Ford Stadium: 72 degrees, dry, wind 2 miles per hour. SMU has the better offense, 31st to 116th. SMU has the better defense, 43rd to 90th. SMU is 1 and 3 with 2 pushes against the spread this season. The model has SMU winning 36 to 18, a 91 percent chance. SMU is favored by 18.5, up from 16.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 52.5 and sits at 55.5. Our model makes it SMU by 18.5, with a total near 54. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview
Books
9 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CAL |  SMU | Over | Under | CAL | SMU | |
| BetMGMMGM | +18.5-108 | -18.5-110 | 55.5-108 | 55.5-110 | +775 | -1100 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +19.5-110 | -19.5-110 | 55.5-110 | 55.5-110 | +709 | -1100 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +18.5-110 | -18.5-113 | 55.5-114 | 55.5-108 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetUSBetUS | +19-110 | -19-110 | 55.5-110 | 55.5-110 | +700 | -1100 |
| BovadaBovada | +19-115 | -19-105 | 55.5-110 | 55.5-110 | +650 | -1100 |
| DraftKingsDK | +18.5-108 | -18.5-112 | 55.5-105 | 55.5-115 | +700 | -1100 |
| FanDuelFD | +18.5-110 | -18.5-110 | 55.5-105 | 55.5-115 | +720 | -1200 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +19.5-106 | -19.5-106 | 55.5-108 | 55.5-108 | +709 | -1100 |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | +19-110 | -19-110 | 55-110 | 55-110 | +640 | -1099 |
1st-half prices
3 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | SMU | Over | Under | |
| BetUSBetUS | +10.5-108 | -10.5-112 | 27.5-113 | 27.5-107 |
| DraftKingsDK | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 27.5-110 | 27.5-110 |
| FanDuelFD | +11.5-115 | -11.5-105 | 27.5-118 | 27.5-104 |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Spread
CAL +18.5SMU -18.5Bets68%
32%
Money74%
26%
Winner
CALSMUBets2%
98%
Money7%
93%
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like SMU as an 18.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.
Compare by
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Show up togames
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 93%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.2 against an average line of 18.2; 51.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings |
-15.5 | 27–13 | L | U61.25 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread |
-18.25 | 31–10 | W | U57.25 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form |
-22 | 35–23 | L | U58.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation |
-16.5 | 19–30 | L | U52 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread |
-20.5 | 59–25 | W | O55.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread |
-17.5 | 41–0 | W | U60.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest |
-21.5 | 25–16 | L | U55.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings |
-14.5 | 57–3 | W | O54.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form |
-14 | 34–14 | W | U55 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation |
-21.5 | 41–13 | W | U56.5 |
UCF
HOU
ARIZ
UTEP
TULN
UAB
TCU
KSU
BAY
BC
WAKE
STAN
FSU
VT
OKSTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
SMU 91%
Projected CAL 18 – SMU 36 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
SMU -18.5
Market SMU -18.5
Against the spread
No lean
Below the 3-point lean threshold.
Total
No lean
Model 54 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from SMU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadSMU rating edge+14.8+Home field+2.5+Travel+1.3=Model marginSMU by 18.6
TotalScoring ratings54.0=Model total54.0
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight SMU ATS trend
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
California ATS struggles (2-5)
California have covered only 29% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 262-295 (47%)
SMU ATS struggles (1-3-2)
SMU have covered only 25% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 262-295 (47%)
Market moved toward SMU
2 pts (SMU -16.5 → SMU -18.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 3
52.5 → 55.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 1386 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| SMU | 8-2 80% | 4-4-2 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
CAL 1–2 SMU
SMU leads · 3 games since 1957 · CAL has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 2025 | SMU 35 @ California 38 | SMU -13.5 | CAL W |
| Nov 30 2024 | California 6 @ SMU 38 | SMU -11.5 | SMU W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CAL−0.3 →−4.4▼ 4.1#86
SMU+9.9 →+9.2▼ 0.7#33
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7
CALLonger bar = better
SMU#116
Offense
SMU better ▶#31
#90
Defense
SMU better ▶#43
+0.1 #66
Turnovers
◀ CAL better−0.5 #104
71 plays #24
Pace
◀ CAL faster69 plays #45
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When CAL has the ball| CAL off | SMU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.9 #100 | 21.3 #47 | SMU |
| Yards / play | 5.35 #110 | 4.93 #31 | SMU |
| PPA / play | −0.03 #127 | +0.07 #58 | SMU |
| Success rate | 38% #126 | 38% #37 | SMU |
When SMU has the ball| SMU off | CAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.7 #47 | 27.7 #105 | SMU |
| Yards / play | 6.84 #13 | 5.96 #106 | SMU |
| PPA / play | +0.21 #43 | +0.15 #99 | SMU |
| Success rate | 49% #20 | 39% #49 | SMU |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
CAL scoring against the SMU defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL scored | 7.1 #48 | 5.3 #118 | 12.4 #98 | 5.4 #88 | 6.0 #94 | 11.4 #92 |
| SMU allowed | 6.8 #111 | 2.2 #3 | 9.0 #34 | 4.0 #49 | 8.3 #117 | 12.3 #83 |
SMU scoring against the CAL defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU scored | 6.2 #71 | 13.2 #14 | 19.3 #28 | 5.0 #96 | 8.3 #45 | 13.3 #68 |
| CAL allowed | 4.4 #59 | 13.4 #134 | 17.9 #123 | 2.9 #29 | 7.0 #89 | 9.9 #49 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
SMU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 1 mph
gusts 4 mph · kickoff forecast
Rest
CAL7d
SMU7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 140 plays
slowavg 133fast
Travel
CAL 1,472 mi
Model moves the line 1.3 pts
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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