California @ NC State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at NC State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast73°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

California

3-4 · Power #85

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

NC State

3-3 · Power #61

projected

CAL 21%

79% NCSU

Spread

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Total

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model 53.5

Model line

NCSU -11

NCSU 79% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-1	—
NCSU WLLWL	2-4	33%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CAL away; NCSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UUOUU	2-5	29%	3-4
NCSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

California

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ UVA	L21–31LU
Nov 21	vs STAN	L10–31LU
Nov 28	vs PITT	L15–17WU

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs DUKE	L33–45LO
Nov 14	vs SYR	L17–24LU
Nov 21	@ FSU	W21–11WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAL 0–1 NCSU NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	NC State 24 @ California 23	CAL -9.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL−0.3 →−4.7▼ 4.4#88

NCSU+6.0 →+2.0▼ 4.0#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CAL

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#116

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#52

#90

Defense

◀ CAL better

#109

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−0.2 #84

71 plays #24

Pace

Even

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	27.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.35 #109	6.06 #112	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.21 #115	Even
Success rate	38% #126	44% #106	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	27.7 #105	NCSU
Yards / play	6.00 #58	5.96 #106	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.15 #99	NCSU
Success rate	44% #58	39% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.1 #48	5.3 #118	12.4 #98	5.4 #87	6.0 #94	11.4 #92
NCSU allowed	2.8 #18	5.7 #37	8.5 #29	9.3 #133	9.8 #131	19.2 #135

NCSU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #18	10.3 #44	20.2 #26	7.8 #31	5.0 #114	12.8 #78
CAL allowed	4.4 #59	13.4 #134	17.9 #123	2.9 #29	7.0 #89	9.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.