Pittsburgh @ Louisville: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Louisville · Conference game

Pittsburgh

5-2 · Power #39

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Louisville

4-3 · Power #23

projected

PITT 29%

71% LOU

Spread

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Total

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model 56.5

Model line

LOU -7.5

LOU 71% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WWWLL	4-3	57%	1-1	—
LOU WLLWL	4-3	57%	3-1	—

Venue/role: PITT away; LOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UUOUO	3-4	43%	5-2
LOU OUOOO	6-1	86%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ CAL	W17–15LU

Louisville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UK	W41–0WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

PITT 1–2 LOU LOU leads · 3 games since 2023 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Louisville 34 @ Pittsburgh 27	LOU -3.5	LOU W
Nov 23 2024	Pittsburgh 9 @ Louisville 37	LOU -7.5	LOU W
Oct 14 2023	Louisville 21 @ Pittsburgh 38	LOU -7.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+6.4 →+7.7▲ 1.3#39

LOU+9.5 →+12.4▲ 2.9#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PITT

Longer bar = better

LOU

#61

Offense

LOU better ▶

#15

#23

Defense

◀ PITT better

#86

+0.6 #28

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.9 #14

71 plays #19

Pace

◀ PITT faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #45	27.4 #102	PITT
Yards / play	6.30 #47	5.60 #81	PITT
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.10 #80	Even
Success rate	43% #74	42% #82	Even

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #15	16.4 #22	Even
Yards / play	7.67 #3	5.03 #42	LOU
PPA / play	+0.32 #15	−0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	48% #25	34% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.1 #17	9.6 #60	19.7 #27	6.9 #48	6.3 #89	13.1 #73
LOU allowed	5.7 #92	10.1 #117	15.9 #110	6.0 #88	5.6 #53	11.6 #74

LOU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.9 #38	9.4 #62	17.3 #47	11.4 #4	10.0 #14	21.4 #2
PITT allowed	3.0 #29	6.9 #66	9.9 #47	2.0 #11	4.6 #29	6.6 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.