Virginia Tech @ Miami: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami · Conference game

Virginia Tech

5-2 · Power #45

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Miami

6-0 · Power #3

projected

VT 10%

90% MIA

Spread

MIA -16.5

Total

56.5

model 58

Spread edge

MIA by 6

lean · context

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIA -16.5

Total56.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIA -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (151 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIA -16.5

Total56.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 16.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 16.9; 63.5 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Very close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Very close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Close	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Close	NEB vs MD 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	48–23	W	O52.5
Close	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-18	30–27	L	O52
Close	OSU vs MD 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-17	37–17	W	U57
Close	USC vs MSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	45–31	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WLLLW	4-3	57%	1-2	—
MIA WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUOUO	5-2	71%	5-2
MIA OUOOO	5-1	83%	6-0

In 1299 games with totals 52.5–60.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Virginia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UVA	L7–27LU

Miami

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs BC	W45–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

VT 15–27 MIA MIA leads · 42 games since 1953 · MIA has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Miami 34 @ Virginia Tech 17	MIA -17.5	VT W
Sep 27 2024	Virginia Tech 34 @ Miami 38	MIA -17.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+1.5 →+5.5▲ 4.0#45

MIA+21.1 →+24.1▲ 3.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

MIA

#38

Offense

MIA better ▶

#55

Defense

MIA better ▶

#19

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.8 #15

73 plays #10

Pace

◀ VT faster

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #22	14.0 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #50	4.65 #22	MIA
PPA / play	+0.23 #36	−0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	46% #44	37% #25	Even

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #1	21.1 #46	MIA
Yards / play	8.07 #1	5.21 #57	MIA
PPA / play	+0.44 #1	+0.10 #73	MIA
Success rate	54% #1	39% #45	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	10.4 #15	14.0 #8	24.4 #7	6.0 #71	6.7 #73	12.7 #82
MIA allowed	2.7 #16	3.3 #14	6.0 #7	2.2 #13	4.7 #34	6.8 #12

MIA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #12	16.8 #1	27.8 #1	10.5 #10	7.7 #55	18.2 #15
VT allowed	1.4 #3	6.3 #53	7.7 #18	5.4 #79	8.0 #109	13.4 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.