UTEP @ Air Force: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Fri, Nov 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Air Force · Conference game

UTEP

1-6 · Power #136

projected

Fri 8:00 PM ET

Air Force

5-1 · Power #90

projected

UTEP 5%

95% AFA

Spread

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Total

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model 53

Model line

AFA -22.5

AFA 95% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-3	—
AFA LLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: UTEP away; AFA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP OUOUU	3-4	43%	1-6
AFA OOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
AFA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UTEP

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ NIU	No meeting since 2023

Air Force

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UNM	L3–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−22.0▼ 6.1#136

AFA−15.2 →−5.2▲ 10.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UTEP

Longer bar = better

AFA

#133

Offense

AFA better ▶

#51

#130

Defense

AFA better ▶

#49

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.5 #35

59 plays #131

Pace

AFA faster ▶

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	UTEP off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	15.1 #134	19.7 #38	AFA
Yards / play	4.88 #127	5.46 #72	AFA
PPA / play	−0.08 #136	+0.04 #44	AFA
Success rate	34% #136	38% #42	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #61	37.3 #134	AFA
Yards / play	5.67 #88	6.30 #121	AFA
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	+0.28 #132	AFA
Success rate	49% #23	49% #133	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	2.0 #134	4.0 #134	6.0 #137	4.4 #108	4.7 #117	9.1 #122
AFA allowed	2.8 #18	8.0 #82	10.8 #53	4.5 #64	3.3 #10	7.8 #20

AFA scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.3 #116	10.7 #39	14.0 #83	5.2 #91	10.2 #12	15.3 #38
UTEP allowed	10.4 #135	6.0 #47	16.4 #114	13.1 #138	7.7 #99	20.9 #138

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.