Hawai'i @ Nevada: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Nevada · Conference game

Hawai'i

1-6 · Power #118

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Nevada

2-4 · Power #109

projected

HAW 26%

74% NEV

Spread

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Total

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model 49

Model line

NEV -9

NEV 74% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
NEV LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: HAW away; NEV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUUUU	1-6	14%	1-6
NEV UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
NEV	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawai'i

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs SAC	No meeting since 2023

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UNLV	L17–42LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HAW 2–0 NEV HAW leads · 2 games since 2023 · HAW has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Nevada 13 @ Hawai'i 34	HAW -1.5	HAW W
Nov 4 2023	Hawai'i 27 @ Nevada 14	NEV -3	HAW W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−7.0 →−13.3▼ 6.3#119

NEV−13.2 →−10.8▲ 2.4#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

HAW

Longer bar = better

NEV

#123

Offense

NEV better ▶

#94

#103

Defense

NEV better ▶

#56

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

◀ HAW better

−1.3 #136

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ HAW faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: NEV defense

	HAW off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #133	23.5 #66	NEV
Yards / play	4.90 #124	4.90 #30	NEV
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.12 #85	NEV
Success rate	39% #116	39% #44	NEV

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #89	25.0 #77	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #84	6.10 #113	NEV
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.19 #111	Even
Success rate	40% #103	45% #111	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.6 #124	4.3 #131	6.9 #133	2.7 #128	6.1 #92	8.9 #124
NEV allowed	3.3 #35	8.3 #88	11.7 #64	2.5 #23	7.8 #103	10.3 #57

NEV scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	6.3 #65	4.5 #128	10.8 #109	7.3 #38	6.8 #71	14.2 #54
HAW allowed	3.4 #39	8.7 #98	12.1 #74	4.6 #66	8.3 #115	12.9 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.