Air Force @ New Mexico: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Air Force

5-1 · Power #90

projected

Sat 4:30 PM ET

New Mexico

5-1 · Power #56

projected

AFA 19%

81% UNM

Spread

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Total

—

model 50.5

Model line

UNM -12

UNM 81% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—
UNM WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	—

Venue/role: AFA away; UNM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1
UNM OUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	4-6 40%
UNM	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Air Force

No more games this season.

New Mexico

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AFA 0–2 UNM UNM leads · 2 games since 2023 · UNM has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	New Mexico 20 @ Air Force 3	UNM -3.5	UNM W
Oct 12 2024	Air Force 37 @ New Mexico 52	UNM -6.5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−15.2 →−5.2▲ 10.0#92

UNM−4.8 →+3.8▲ 8.6#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

AFA

Longer bar = better

UNM

#51

Offense

Even

#52

#49

Defense

UNM better ▶

+0.5 #35

Turnovers

UNM better ▶

+2.8 #1

72 plays #14

Pace

◀ AFA faster

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	AFA off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #61	10.5 #1	UNM
Yards / play	5.67 #88	4.51 #12	UNM
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	−0.18 #1	UNM
Success rate	49% #23	32% #1	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #10	19.7 #38	UNM
Yards / play	5.91 #67	5.46 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #58	+0.04 #44	Even
Success rate	43% #73	38% #42	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.3 #116	10.7 #39	14.0 #83	5.2 #91	10.2 #12	15.3 #38
UNM allowed	1.7 #6	2.8 #6	4.5 #2	1.2 #4	4.8 #35	6.0 #7

UNM scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.0 #50	11.3 #30	18.3 #39	12.2 #2	9.2 #25	21.3 #3
AFA allowed	2.8 #18	8.0 #82	10.8 #53	4.5 #64	3.3 #10	7.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.