Liberty @ New Mexico State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast66°F13 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

6-1 · Power #67

projected

Sat 5:00 PM ET

New Mexico State

3-4 · Power #119

projected

LIB 76%

24% NMSU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 43.5

Model line

LIB -10

LIB 76% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
NMSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LIB away; NMSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OOUUU	2-5	29%	6-1
NMSU UOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NMSU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs MTSU	W37–17WU
Nov 21	vs WKU	W38–21WO
Nov 28	@ MOST	L17–21LU

New Mexico State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ MOST	L17–24LU
Nov 21	vs DEL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ MTSU	L24–31

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

LIB 7–2 NMSU LIB leads · 9 games since 2018 · LIB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2025	New Mexico State 27 @ Liberty 30	LIB -11.5	NMSU W
Sep 7 2024	Liberty 30 @ New Mexico State 24	LIB -22.5	NMSU W
Dec 1 2023	New Mexico State 35 @ Liberty 49	LIB -10	LIB W
Sep 9 2023	New Mexico State 17 @ Liberty 33	LIB -9	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−8.8 →+1.1▲ 9.9#64

NMSU−18.2 →−13.2▲ 5.0#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LIB

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#42

Offense

◀ LIB better

#105

#13

Defense

◀ LIB better

#57

+0.7 #20

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.7 #120

64 plays #99

Pace

NMSU faster ▶

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #54	25.4 #81	LIB
Yards / play	6.51 #35	5.11 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.05 #50	Even
Success rate	49% #22	39% #48	LIB

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	NMSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #93	14.0 #8	LIB
Yards / play	5.72 #83	4.77 #22	LIB
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	−0.04 #17	LIB
Success rate	39% #115	33% #4	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.1 #26	5.7 #114	14.9 #74	6.3 #66	10.4 #10	16.7 #25
NMSU allowed	7.1 #116	5.7 #41	12.9 #80	7.3 #108	5.3 #45	12.6 #89

NMSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.7 #122	9.1 #70	11.9 #101	5.6 #85	7.1 #61	12.7 #82
LIB allowed	3.3 #34	6.3 #53	9.6 #40	2.0 #11	2.4 #4	4.4 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.