Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Kickoff forecast72°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

3-4 · Power #115

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Middle Tennessee

4-3 · Power #126

projected

WKU 54%

46% MTSU

Spread

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Total

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model 51

Model line

WKU -1.5

WKU 54% to win

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Winner

Market

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Opening line not available

Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLWW	4-3	57%	2-3	—
MTSU WLLWW	5-2	71%	3-0	—

Venue/role: WKU away; MTSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UOUUU	3-4	43%	3-4
MTSU UUOOO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Western Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs JXST	L34–37LO
Nov 21	@ LIB	L21–38LO
Nov 28	vs KENN	W31–14LU

Middle Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ LIB	L17–37LU
Nov 21	@ SHSU	W31–17WU
Nov 28	vs NMSU	W31–24

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WKU 3–0 MTSU WKU leads · 3 games since 2023 · WKU has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Middle Tennessee 26 @ Western Kentucky 42	WKU -13.5	WKU W
Sep 14 2024	Western Kentucky 49 @ Middle Tennessee 21	WKU -10.5	WKU W
Sep 28 2023	Middle Tennessee 10 @ Western Kentucky 31	WKU -6.5	WKU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−7.3 →−12.0▼ 4.7#114

MTSU−15.1 →−15.6▼ 0.5#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WKU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#123

Offense

MTSU better ▶

#85

#92

Defense

◀ WKU better

#113

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+0.7 #25

72 plays #11

Pace

◀ WKU faster

58 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #114	27.6 #103	Even
Yards / play	4.88 #129	6.43 #127	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	+0.15 #102	Even
Success rate	36% #130	46% #120	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #105	30.6 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #73	6.03 #111	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.12 #86	Even
Success rate	41% #93	40% #53	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	3.9 #104	7.7 #92	11.6 #102	3.9 #116	5.9 #96	9.7 #115
MTSU allowed	4.4 #59	7.7 #73	12.1 #73	7.6 #112	7.9 #108	15.4 #123

MTSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #81	5.1 #120	10.9 #107	6.7 #53	5.7 #101	12.4 #86
WKU allowed	6.3 #102	9.9 #115	16.1 #112	9.4 #134	5.0 #43	14.4 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.