Missouri State @ Florida International: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Florida International · Conference game

Kickoff forecast79°F18 mphDryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Missouri State

2-5 · Power #130

projected

Sat 4:00 PM ET

Florida International

3-4 · Power #105

projected

MOST 20%

80% FIU

Spread

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Total

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model 46

Model line

FIU -12

FIU 80% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LWLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	—
FIU LLWPL	3-3-1	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MOST away; FIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST OUUUO	3-4	43%	2-5
FIU UUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
FIU	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Missouri State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs NMSU	W24–17WU
Nov 21	@ JXST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	vs LIB	W21–17WU

Florida International

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ DEL	L16–38LU
Nov 21	@ KENN	L26–45LO
Nov 28	vs SHSU	W56–16WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MOST 1–0 FIU MOST leads · 1 game since 2023 · MOST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2025	Florida International 21 @ Missouri State 28	MOST -3.5	MOST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−11.7 →−17.3▼ 5.6#130

FIU−10.0 →−9.4▲ 0.6#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MOST

Longer bar = better

FIU

#86

Offense

◀ MOST better

#110

#127

Defense

FIU better ▶

#28

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #91

63 plays #103

Pace

FIU faster ▶

69 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	MOST off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #94	16.3 #21	FIU
Yards / play	5.81 #74	4.86 #26	FIU
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.01 #35	FIU
Success rate	42% #80	37% #30	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #119	34.9 #131	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #103	6.11 #114	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.27 #130	Even
Success rate	40% #105	49% #134	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.3 #46	6.1 #111	13.4 #90	7.1 #40	3.9 #125	11.0 #95
FIU allowed	5.3 #83	3.0 #10	8.3 #24	4.4 #59	3.6 #14	8.0 #24

FIU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	6.1 #74	4.9 #124	11.0 #105	5.1 #92	4.0 #123	9.1 #122
MOST allowed	5.3 #83	9.3 #107	14.6 #99	9.9 #137	10.4 #135	20.3 #136

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.