Liberty @ Missouri State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Liberty

6-1 · Power #67

projected

Sat 2:00 PM ET

Missouri State

2-5 · Power #130

projected

LIB 88%

12% MOST

Spread

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Total

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model 53

Model line

LIB -16.5

LIB 88% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
MOST LWLWL	3-4	43%	2-1	—

Venue/role: LIB away; MOST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OOUUU	2-5	29%	6-1
MOST OUUUO	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MOST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Liberty

No more games this season.

Missouri State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 0–1 MOST MOST leads · 1 game since 2025 · MOST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Missouri State 21 @ Liberty 17	LIB -7.5	MOST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−8.8 →+1.1▲ 9.9#64

MOST−11.7 →−17.3▼ 5.6#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LIB

Longer bar = better

MOST

#42

Offense

◀ LIB better

#86

#13

Defense

◀ LIB better

#127

+0.7 #20

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.3 #93

64 plays #99

Pace

Even

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #54	34.9 #131	LIB
Yards / play	6.51 #35	6.11 #114	LIB
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.27 #130	LIB
Success rate	49% #22	49% #134	LIB

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MOST off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #94	14.0 #8	LIB
Yards / play	5.81 #74	4.77 #22	LIB
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	−0.04 #17	LIB
Success rate	42% #80	33% #4	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.1 #26	5.7 #114	14.9 #74	6.3 #66	10.4 #10	16.7 #25
MOST allowed	5.3 #83	9.3 #107	14.6 #99	9.9 #137	10.4 #135	20.3 #136

MOST scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	7.3 #46	6.1 #111	13.4 #90	7.1 #40	3.9 #125	11.0 #95
LIB allowed	3.3 #34	6.3 #53	9.6 #40	2.0 #11	2.4 #4	4.4 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.