Bowling Green @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

0-4 · Power #129

▲ winner

Final

Miami (OH)

2-2 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

M-OH -10.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 17–29 M-OH

✗ M-OH (79%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenM-OH -15.5

CloseM-OH -10.5

Total50.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -15.5

5 → BGSU

CloseM-OH -10.5

5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open50.5

▼ 9

Close41.5

Down 9 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -15.5 · closed M-OH -10.5 · moved 5 toward BGSUmodel M-OH -15

model M-OH -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 44% (164 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenM-OH -15.5

CloseM-OH -10.5

Total50.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like M-OH as a 10.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 24–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.6 against an average line of 10.5; 45.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Loose	NIU vs MASS 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	34–20	P	O41
Loose	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Loose	NIU vs AKR 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-14	29–16	L	O43.5
Loose	WMU vs AKR 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–24	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2
M-OH LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UOOU	2-2	50%	0-4
M-OH OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 248 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
M-OH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BGSU 0–2 M-OH M-OH leads · 2 games since 2023 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Miami (OH) 28 @ Bowling Green 12	BGSU -3	M-OH W
Oct 7 2023	Bowling Green 0 @ Miami (OH) 27	M-OH -11.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−12.7 →−17.5▼ 4.8#129

M-OH−6.3 →−6.1▲ 0.2#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BGSU

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#137

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#50

#130

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#111

−0.3 #83

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #81

57 plays #135

Pace

Even

57 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BGSU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	8.3 #138	30.5 #117	M-OH
Yards / play	4.07 #138	6.36 #125	Even
PPA / play	−0.17 #138	+0.16 #101	M-OH
Success rate	34% #132	43% #99	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #81	36.3 #132	M-OH
Yards / play	6.77 #28	7.21 #136	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.29 #28	+0.20 #117	M-OH
Success rate	44% #61	49% #134	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	2.5 #125	2.5 #135	5.0 #137	0.8 #136	2.5 #128	3.3 #137
M-OH allowed	10.5 #133	2.5 #12	13.0 #87	12.3 #135	5.3 #57	17.5 #126

M-OH scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.0 #59	17.5 #5	24.5 #13	2.5 #124	1.5 #136	4.0 #135
BGSU allowed	10.5 #133	11.3 #125	21.8 #135	2.5 #27	12.0 #136	14.5 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.