Western Michigan @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Rice

Weather at kickoff87°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

1-1 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Rice

1-1 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

WMU -8.5

✓ RICE W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 25–16 RICE

✓ WMU (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -11.5

CloseWMU -8.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -11.5

3 → RICE

CloseWMU -8.5

3 pts toward Rice

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -11.5 · closed WMU -8.5 · moved 3 toward RICEmodel WMU -10.5

model WMU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 55% (107 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (235 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -11.5

CloseWMU -8.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as an 8.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 28–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 51%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 8; 65.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 9 overs, 6 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEM @ CLT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	49–14	W	O47.5
Close	VAN @ GAST 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	32–36	L	O45.5
Close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Close	SDSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	44–10	W	O42.5
Close	ARMY @ TEM 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-11	42–14	W	O47
Close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Close	FRES @ AFA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	28–36	L	O40.5
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
RICE WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
RICE UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 364 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
RICE	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WMU 1–1 RICE Series tied · 2 games since 2008 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−4.7 →−2.5▲ 2.2#75

RICE−14.2 →−14.9▼ 0.7#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WMU

Longer bar = better

RICE

#91

Offense

◀ WMU better

#116

#62

Defense

◀ WMU better

#109

+2.5 #6

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

−1.5 #129

62 plays #97

Pace

Even

63 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #72	27.5 #105	WMU
Yards / play	5.12 #116	5.89 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	+0.11 #95	WMU
Success rate	39% #105	46% #123	Even

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	RICE off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #131	13.5 #35	WMU
Yards / play	4.93 #121	5.12 #72	WMU
PPA / play	−0.03 #121	−0.04 #47	WMU
Success rate	41% #91	42% #92	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	10.5	6.5	17.0
RICE allowed	12.0	10.5	22.5	5.0	0.0	5.0

RICE scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	0.0	7.0	7.0
WMU allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.5	6.5	10.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.