Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Florida
Closing spread
FLA -26.5
✓ FLA W
Total
59.5
▲ Over · 87 pts
Model before kickoff
FAU 15–41 FLA
✓ FLA (97%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenFLA -25.5
CloseFLA -26.5
Total56.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -25.5
1 → FLA
CloseFLA -26.5
1 pt toward Florida
Total
Open56.5
▲ 3
Close59.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -25.5 · closed FLA -26.5 · moved 1 toward FLAmodel FLA -26
model FLA -26
Opened 56.5 · closed 59.5 · moved 3 upmodel 55.5
model 55.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 49% (75 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (289 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenFLA -25.5
CloseFLA -26.5
Total56.5 → 59.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
FLA as a 26.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: FLA won 66–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 59.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 95%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 26; 58.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-26.5 | 31–15 | L | U56 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-27.5 | 70–21 | W | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-26.75 | 31–42 | L | O58.75 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-23.5 | 42–24 | L | O58.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-24 | 28–14 | L | U56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-24.5 | 13–10 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-24.5 | 48–7 | W | U56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation |
-26.5 | 48–23 | L | O49.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-29.5 | 48–0 | W | U63 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread |
-27 | 48–24 | L | O57.25 |
AUB
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TXST
TA&M
UTSA
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WMU
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WKU
SYR
UK
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USC
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TENNHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 3
56.5 → 59.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Florida Atlantic have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 373 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 FAU | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| FLA | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
FLA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 3 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
FAU1st game
FLA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Floridavs CAM →
MEM @ 
UNLV
UAB @ 
ILL
UTEP @ 
OU
UNT @ 
IU
ECU @ 
ALA
KENT @ 
SC
TEX
TULN @ 
DUKE
OKST @ 
TLSA