Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 9:40 PM EDTWeek 1 · at LSU
Closing spread
LSU -10
✓ LSU W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
CLEM 18–28 LSU
✓ LSU (74%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLSU -10.5
CloseLSU -10
Total50.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLSU -10.5
0.5 → CLEM
CloseLSU -10
0.5 pts toward Clemson
Total
Open50.5
▼ 2
Close48.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LSU -10.5 · closed LSU -10 · moved 0.5 toward CLEMmodel LSU -5.5
model LSU -5.5
Opened 50.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 2 downmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 77%, covered 43% (136 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLSU -10.5
CloseLSU -10
Total50.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LSU as a 10-point home favorite against CLEM, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: LSU won 51–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 73%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 7.5; 49.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 21–27 | L | O44.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 24–17 | W | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 23–21 | L | U51 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 42–31 | W | O50.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total |
-9 | 27–10 | W | U51 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-6.5 | 31–24 | W | O45 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-8.5 | 34–20 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total |
-6 | 44–31 | W | O52.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread |
-9 | 24–31 | L | O42 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total |
-7 | 3–7 | L | U46 |
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ARKHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
50.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Clemson have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 620 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CLEM | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| LSU | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
CLEM 0–1 LSU
LSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LSU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30 2025 | LSU 17 @ Clemson 10 | CLEM -5.5 | LSU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 1 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CLEM1st game
LSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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