Mon, Sep 7, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Florida State · Conference game
Closing spread
SMU -3
Push
Total
52.5
▼ Under · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
SMU 29–27 FSU
✓ SMU (54%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSMU -2.5
CloseSMU -3
Total52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMU -2.5
0.5 → SMU
CloseSMU -3
0.5 pts toward SMU
Total
Open52.5
no move
Close52.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMU -2.5 · closed SMU -3 · moved 0.5 toward SMUmodel FSU -5
model FSU -5
Opened 52.5 · unchangedmodel 56.5
model 56.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (198 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSMU -2.5
CloseSMU -3
Total52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
SMU as a 3-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: SMU won 27–24; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 52.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 3; 47.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-2.5 | 45–19 | W | O49.25 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2.5 | 41–17 | W | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 17–23 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2 | 23–7 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-4 | 27–20 | W | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 45–18 | W | O56 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-4 | 21–24 | L | U49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-6 | 13–20 | L | U54.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread |
-2.5 | 38–28 | W | O46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest |
-2.5 | 20–13 | W | U58.5 |
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CINHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
SMU have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
 FSU | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
SMU 1–0 FSU
SMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SMU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 2024 | Florida State 16 @ SMU 42 | SMU -5.5 | SMU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
FSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · 0.016 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
SMU1st game
FSU9d
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
SMUvs UCD →
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COLO @ 
GT
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BC @ 
TULN @