Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New Mexico
Closing spread
UNM -11.5
✓ UNM W
Total
47.5
▼ Under · 45 pts
Model before kickoff
CMU 18–30 UNM
✓ UNM (80%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUNM -12.5
CloseUNM -11.5
Total49.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNM -12.5
1 → CMU
CloseUNM -11.5
1 pt toward Central Michigan
Total
Open49.5
▼ 2
Close47.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNM -12.5 · closed UNM -11.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel UNM -12.5
model UNM -12.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 2 downmodel 48.5
model 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 42% (119 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (332 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUNM -12.5
CloseUNM -11.5
Total49.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UNM as an 11.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: UNM won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Below normal · usually 77%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 51%
Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 11; 52.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-10.5 | 37–45 | L | O48 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-10 | 31–38 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-11.5 | 35–11 | W | O42.75 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-12 | 16–10 | L | U45 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread |
-13 | 35–33 | L | O48 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-9.5 | 14–34 | L | U49 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-12.5 | 20–21 | L | U45.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-8.5 | 24–27 | L | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-13 | 20–23 | L | O42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-9.5 | 35–20 | W | O51.5 |
APP
CCU
RICE
CONN
NEB
NIU
MSU
FAU
TOL
SHSU
FRES
HAW
BC
BUFF
MRSH
GASTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New Mexico ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Total moved down 2
49.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
New Mexico at altitude (+1.3 km)
Central Michigan climb about 4,298 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Central Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CMU | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| UNM | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UNM +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
87° · 5 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CMU1st game
UNM1st game
Even
Altitude
CMU +4,298 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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