New Mexico State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Hawai'i

Weather at kickoff78°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

1-1 · Power #119

final

Final

Hawai'i

0-2 · Power #118

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -7.5

✓ HAW W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 20–28 HAW

✓ HAW (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHAW -11.5

CloseHAW -7.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHAW -11.5

4 → NMSU

CloseHAW -7.5

4 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HAW -11.5 · closed HAW -7.5 · moved 4 toward NMSUmodel HAW -9.5

model HAW -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (214 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHAW -11.5

CloseHAW -7.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 7.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HAW won 29–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 6.3; 50.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN vs FIU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–24	L	U43.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Close	OKST vs TLSA 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	12–19	L	U54.5
Close	TROY vs ULM 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	9–13	L	U46
Close	FAU vs FIU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–20	W	O44.5
Close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Close	UTSA vs RICE 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	61–13	W	O48.5
Close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	30–45	L	O52
Close	VT vs WAKE 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-4.5	23–30	L	O51.5
Close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
HAW LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
HAW OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	3-7 30%	7-2 78%	3-6 33%
HAW	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NMSU 0–1 HAW HAW leads · 1 game since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	New Mexico State 17 @ Hawai'i 20	HAW -3.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−18.2 →−13.3▲ 4.9#122

HAW−7.0 →−9.0▼ 2.0#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

NMSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#68

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#124

#89

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#110

+1.0 #25

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

−1.0 #110

66 plays #81

Pace

HAW faster ▶

76 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #60	29.0 #110	NMSU
Yards / play	6.66 #44	6.37 #118	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	+0.20 #119	NMSU
Success rate	39% #96	42% #91	Even

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	HAW off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #121	24.0 #87	NMSU
Yards / play	4.08 #129	5.29 #80	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.02 #117	+0.11 #97	Even
Success rate	34% #127	42% #92	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 8 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	6.5	8.5	15.0	5.0	14.0	19.0
HAW allowed	7.0	7.0	14.0	4.5	10.5	15.0

HAW scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	0.0	5.0	5.0	1.5	10.0	11.5
NMSU allowed	5.0	10.5	15.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.