North Dakota State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

North Dakota State

2-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

1-0 · Power #90

final

Closing spread

NDSU -1.5

✓ NDSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

NDSU 27–25 AFA

✓ NDSU (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -6.5

CloseNDSU -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNDSU -6.5

5 → AFA

CloseNDSU -1.5

5 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NDSU -6.5 · closed NDSU -1.5 · moved 5 toward AFAmodel NDSU -3.5

model NDSU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (175 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (129 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNDSU -6.5

CloseNDSU -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like NDSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: NDSU won 38–32; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 70 points went over 48.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 15 against an average line of 3; 81 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	33–48	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
AFA W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: NDSU away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU UU	0-2	0%	2-0
AFA U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 643 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
AFA	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NDSU−11.9 →−4.4▲ 7.5#83

AFA−15.2 →−13.2▲ 2.0#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

NDSU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#64

Offense

AFA better ▶

#49

Defense

Even

+2.5 #10

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #14

68 plays #62

Pace

AFA faster ▶

78 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NDSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	NDSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #55	0.0 #1	AFA
Yards / play	5.49 #99	2.49 #2	AFA
PPA / play	+0.25 #50	−0.33 #5	AFA
Success rate	48% #52	24% #8	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	AFA off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #61	3.5 #4	NDSU
Yards / play	5.77 #80	2.99 #7	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.37 #27	−0.54 #2	NDSU
Success rate	52% #27	28% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.