Arkansas @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Utah

Weather at kickoff80°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

1-0 · Power #57

final

Final

Utah

1-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -13.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 25–40 UTAH

✓ UTAH (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -11.5

CloseUTAH -13.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -11.5

2 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -13.5

2 pts toward Utah

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -11.5 · closed UTAH -13.5 · moved 2 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -18.5

model UTAH -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 54% (140 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (308 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -11.5

CloseUTAH -13.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 13.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 43–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 14.5; 63 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Loose	MIZ vs SC 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	29–20	L	O48.5
Loose	MIA vs VT 2024 · Week 5 · loose	-17.5	38–34	L	O55.5
Loose	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-13	27–20	L	U62
Loose	USC vs MSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	45–31	L	O55.5
Loose	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Loose	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Loose	UTAH vs CIN 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-11	45–14	W	O57.5
Loose	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Loose	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK L	0-1	0%	—	—
UTAH W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK U	0-1	0%	1-0
UTAH O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UTAH	9-1 90%	7-2-1 78%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+7.3 →+4.4▼ 2.9#49

UTAH+14.7 →+16.6▲ 1.9#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ARK

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#77

Offense

UTAH better ▶

#28

Defense

◀ ARK better

#44

−2.0 #133

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

+2.0 #11

84 plays #4

Pace

◀ ARK faster

75 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	ARK off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #75	14.0 #42	UTAH
Yards / play	4.94 #117	3.69 #19	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.07 #78	Even
Success rate	52% #24	33% #37	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	66.0 #2	14.0 #44	UTAH
Yards / play	8.44 #7	3.48 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.47 #11	−0.07 #41	UTAH
Success rate	56% #11	27% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.