Louisiana @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at USC

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

1-0 · Power #81

final

Final

USC

2-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -30.5

✓ UL W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 14–45 USC

✓ USC (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -28.5

CloseUSC -30.5

Total63.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -28.5

2 → USC

CloseUSC -30.5

2 pts toward USC

Total

Open63.5

▼ 5

Close58.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -28.5 · closed USC -30.5 · moved 2 toward USCmodel USC -34

model USC -34

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 29.5–31.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 49% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (309 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -28.5

CloseUSC -30.5

Total63.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like USC as a 30.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 49–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 79 points went over 58.5, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 59.5 against an average line of 29.8; 75.5 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	FSU vs USM 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-31	66–13	W	O54
Loose	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL W	1-0	100%	—	—
USC LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL U	0-1	0%	1-0
USC OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 474 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
USC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−10.9 →−9.6▲ 1.3#106

USC+17.6 →+18.1▲ 0.5#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

USC

#43

Offense

USC better ▶

#23

#31

Defense

Even

#37

+1.0 #40

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.5 #91

69 plays #53

Pace

USC faster ▶

72 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #47	13.0 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.87 #37	4.52 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #48	−0.08 #40	Even
Success rate	50% #41	31% #26	Even

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #39	7.0 #15	UL
Yards / play	7.34 #23	3.42 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #26	−0.24 #12	Even
Success rate	65% #3	41% #85	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.