Clemson @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Fri, Sep 25, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

2-1 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

California

2-1 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

CLEM -2.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 27–24 CAL

✓ CLEM (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCLEM -1.5

CloseCLEM -2.5

Total47.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -1.5

1 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -2.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open47.5

▲ 5

Close52.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -1.5 · closed CLEM -2.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -1.5

model CLEM -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (262 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (314 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCLEM -1.5

CloseCLEM -2.5

Total47.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 2.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 2.7; 58.6 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN @ PUR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–49	L	O48.5
Close	WIS @ MINN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.25	28–14	W	U44
Loose	UTSA @ RICE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–29	L	O51
Loose	KENN @ JXST 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3.5	26–35	L	O56
Loose	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Loose	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Loose	BOIS @ UNLV 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	44–20	W	O62
Loose	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Loose	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Loose	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1.75	55–17	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
CAL LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
CAL OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+10.7 →+3.7▼ 7.0#51

CAL−0.3 →−1.5▼ 1.2#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CLEM

Longer bar = better

CAL

#129

Offense

CAL better ▶

#90

#83

Defense

Even

#71

−0.3 #105

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

0.0 #80

63 plays #100

Pace

CAL faster ▶

73 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	CLEM off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #120	23.3 #75	CAL
Yards / play	4.75 #126	5.48 #87	CAL
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	+0.04 #62	CAL
Success rate	33% #137	39% #59	CAL

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #71	26.0 #102	CAL
Yards / play	5.89 #84	5.50 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.04 #60	CLEM
Success rate	41% #106	41% #79	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	4.3 #103	4.0 #129	8.3 #124	3.0 #120	8.7 #45	11.7 #93
CAL allowed	3.3 #45	11.0 #117	14.3 #95	2.0 #22	7.0 #89	9.0 #52

CAL scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	12.0 #19	9.0 #74	21.0 #39	7.0 #59	3.3 #118	10.3 #102
CLEM allowed	10.3 #126	8.0 #83	18.3 #121	4.3 #63	3.3 #24	7.7 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.