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College edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Does the side the model likes against the spread cover?

FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

Model side covered
51.1%
of the model’s spread picks covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
1605–1537–35 record (pushes last)
3,177 games
49–53% 95% range
3,142 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
2023885446–414–2551.9%
2024865429–43649.6%
2025913470–440–351.6%
2026 so far514260–247–751.3%

By spread edge size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–1.5971497–467–751.6%51.0% 3,011
2–3.5887440–438–950.1%50.8% 2,047
4–5.5528266–259–350.7%51.3% 1,169
6+655334–310–1151.9%51.9% 644

3,177 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingSpread edgeResultFinal
ECU @ MEM
2026 · Week 8
MEM -10.5 · 55.5 · final 34–41
 MEM -10.5 · 55.5 MEM -10.5 favorite · edge 1 L 34–41
JMU @ APP
2026 · Week 8
JMU -12.5 · 56.5 · final 31–34
 JMU -12.5 · 56.5 APP +12.5 underdog · edge 3 W 31–34
LIB @ KENN
2026 · Week 8
LIB -8.5 · 50.5 · final 34–6
 LIB -8.5 · 50.5 LIB -8.5 favorite · edge 0.5 W 34–6
NMSU @ SHSU
2026 · Week 8
NMSU -3 · 46.5 · final 30–24
 NMSU -3 · 46.5 SHSU +3 underdog · edge 5 L 30–24
USA @ MRSH
2026 · Week 8
USA -1.5 · 66.5 · final 13–20
 USA -1.5 · 66.5 USA -1.5 favorite · edge 1 L 13–20
MTSU @ FIU
2026 · Week 8
FIU -10.5 · 46.5 · final 26–23
 FIU -10.5 · 46.5 FIU -10.5 favorite · edge 3.5 L 26–23
MOST @ DEL
2026 · Week 8
DEL -3 · 54.5 · final 38–61
 DEL -3 · 54.5 DEL -3 favorite · edge 3.5 W 38–61
NEB @ ORE
2026 · Week 7
ORE -6.5 · 50.5 · final 14–17
 ORE -6.5 · 50.5 ORE -6.5 favorite · edge 1.5 L 14–17
WAKE @ CAL
2026 · Week 7
WAKE -10 · 54.5 · final 41–7
 WAKE -10 · 54.5 CAL +10 underdog · edge 1 L 41–7
FRES @ SDSU
2026 · Week 7
FRES -6.5 · 46.5 · final 23–26
 FRES -6.5 · 46.5 FRES -6.5 favorite · edge 1.5 L 23–26
UNM @ HAW
2026 · Week 7
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10
 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 HAW +14.5 underdog · edge 1 W 21–10
UTAH @ COLO
2026 · Week 7
UTAH -15.5 · 49.5 · final 27–24
 UTAH -15.5 · 49.5 UTAH -15.5 favorite · edge 2.5 L 27–24
OHIO @ SAC
2026 · Week 7
OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 · final 48–7
 OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 SAC +17.5 underdog · edge 7 L 48–7
SJSU @ UTEP
2026 · Week 7
SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 · final 24–11
 SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 SJSU -6.5 favorite · edge 0.5 W 24–11
NAVY @ UTSA
2026 · Week 7
UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 · final 34–38
 UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 UTSA -5.5 favorite · edge 5.5 L 34–38
LT @ ULM
2026 · Week 7
LT -13.5 · 55.5 · final 24–0
 LT -13.5 · 55.5 LT -13.5 favorite · edge 2.5 W 24–0
ND @ BYU
2026 · Week 7
ND -10.5 · 47.5 · final 24–28
 ND -10.5 · 47.5 BYU +10.5 underdog · edge 1.5 W 24–28
WIS @ UCLA
2026 · Week 7
UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 7–17
 UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 UCLA -1.5 favorite · edge 7.5 W 7–17
UK @ OU
2026 · Week 7
OU -7 · 44.5 · final 21–13
 OU -7 · 44.5 OU -7 favorite · edge 0.5 L 21–13
OKST @ HOU
2026 · Week 7
HOU -4 · 62.5 · final 32–35
 HOU -4 · 62.5 HOU -4 favorite · edge 7 L 32–35
ELON @ STAN
2026 · Week 7
STAN -33.5 · 55.5 · final 7–34
 STAN -33.5 · 55.5 ELON +33.5 underdog · edge 16.5 W 7–34
LOU @ SYR
2026 · Week 7
LOU -14.5 · 56.5 · final 34–26
 LOU -14.5 · 56.5 SYR +14.5 underdog · edge 5.5 W 34–26
FSU @ MIA
2026 · Week 7
MIA -20.5 · 57.5 · final 35–43
 MIA -20.5 · 57.5 MIA -20.5 favorite · edge 1.5 L 35–43
ARK @ VAN
2026 · Week 7
VAN -5.5 · 48.5 · final 31–21
 VAN -5.5 · 48.5 ARK +5.5 underdog · edge 1 W 31–21
TCU @ BAY
2026 · Week 7
BAY -3.5 · 50.5 · final 17–6
 BAY -3.5 · 50.5 BAY -3.5 favorite · edge 1 L 17–6
KENT @ USF
2026 · Week 7
USF -20.5 · 46.5 · final 2–29
 USF -20.5 · 46.5 USF -20.5 favorite · edge 0.5 W 2–29
NEV @ NDSU
2026 · Week 7
NDSU -14.5 · 42.5 · final 17–31
 NDSU -14.5 · 42.5 NDSU -14.5 favorite · edge 0 L 17–31
ARST @ USM
2026 · Week 7
ARST -5.5 · 61.5 · final 23–13
 ARST -5.5 · 61.5 USM +5.5 underdog · edge 2 L 23–13
WSU @ ORST
2026 · Week 7
ORST -18.5 · 52.5 · final 30–48
 ORST -18.5 · 52.5 WSU +18.5 underdog · edge 2.5 W 30–48
TROY @ UL
2026 · Week 7
UL -3 · 49.5 · final 6–33
 UL -3 · 49.5 TROY +3 underdog · edge 1 L 6–33
TLSA @ RICE
2026 · Week 7
TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 · final 38–17
 TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 TLSA -3.5 favorite · edge 1.5 W 38–17
AUB @ UGA
2026 · Week 7
UGA -19.5 · 50.5 · final 27–24
 UGA -19.5 · 50.5 UGA -19.5 favorite · edge 0.5 L 27–24
ALA @ TENN
2026 · Week 7
ALA -7.5 · 50.5 · final 10–26
 ALA -7.5 · 50.5 ALA -7.5 favorite · edge 0.5 L 10–26
MIZ @ MISS
2026 · Week 7
MISS -4 · 57.5 · final 3–31
 MISS -4 · 57.5 MIZ +4 underdog · edge 2.5 L 3–31
ASU @ TTU
2026 · Week 7
TTU -16.5 · 50.5 · final 25–53
 TTU -16.5 · 50.5 TTU -16.5 favorite · edge 2 W 25–53
GT @ VT
2026 · Week 7
VT -8.5 · 55.5 · final 24–34
 VT -8.5 · 55.5 VT -8.5 favorite · edge 2.5 W 24–34
UNC @ DUKE
2026 · Week 7
DUKE -3 · 46.5 · final 24–20
 DUKE -3 · 46.5 DUKE -3 favorite · edge 1.5 L 24–20
PSU @ MICH
2026 · Week 7
MICH -6 · 43.5 · final 18–21
 MICH -6 · 43.5 PSU +6 underdog · edge 4.5 W 18–21
NIU @ WYO
2026 · Week 7
WYO -7 · 42.5 · final 23–41
 WYO -7 · 42.5 WYO -7 favorite · edge 3.5 W 23–41
UNLV @ AFA
2026 · Week 7
AFA -1.5 · 49.5 · final 31–41
 AFA -1.5 · 49.5 UNLV +1.5 underdog · edge 0.5 L 31–41
TOL @ EMU
2026 · Week 7
TOL -7.5 · 51.5 · final 34–14
 TOL -7.5 · 51.5 TOL -7.5 favorite · edge 1.5 W 34–14
AKR @ M-OH
2026 · Week 7
M-OH -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–34
 M-OH -9.5 · 47.5 M-OH -9.5 favorite · edge 3 W 14–34
WMU @ CMU
2026 · Week 7
WMU -7.5 · 42.5 · final 21–14
 WMU -7.5 · 42.5 WMU -7.5 favorite · edge 0.5 L 21–14
CIT @ TA&M
2026 · Week 7
TA&M -46.5 · 56.5 · final 0–41
 TA&M -46.5 · 56.5 CIT +46.5 underdog · edge 1.5 W 0–41
CLT @ TEM
2026 · Week 7
TEM -17.5 · 47.5 · final 38–31
 TEM -17.5 · 47.5 TEM -17.5 favorite · edge 2 L 38–31
MASS @ BUFF
2026 · Week 7
BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 · final 18–25
 BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 MASS +6.5 underdog · edge 6 L 18–25
RUTG @ MD
2026 · Week 7
MD -5.5 · 55.5 · final 37–30
 MD -5.5 · 55.5 MD -5.5 favorite · edge 2.5 L 37–30
OSU @ IU
2026 · Week 7
OSU -3 · 49.5 · final 19–15
 OSU -3 · 49.5 IU +3 underdog · edge 1 L 19–15
FLA @ TEX
2026 · Week 7
TEX -13.5 · 51.5 · final 27–24
 TEX -13.5 · 51.5 FLA +13.5 underdog · edge 0.5 W 27–24
MSST @ LSU
2026 · Week 7
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31
 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 MSST +17.5 underdog · edge 6 L 0–31
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 1,000
Spread edge is the model’s line minus the closing spread, in points; the side is the team the model likes against the number (a Favorite or an Underdog). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.