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College edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Does the side the model likes on the total (Over or Under) cash?

FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

Model side cashed
53.1%
of the model’s total picks cashed
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
1550–1371–7 record (pushes last)
2,928 games
51–55% 95% range
2,921 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
2023785418–360–753.7%
2024816443–37354.3%
2025848461–38754.4%
2026 so far479228–25147.6%

By total edge size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–1.51,153607–542–452.8%53.1% 2,921
2–3.51,007548–458–154.5%53.2% 1,772
4–5.5461235–224–251.2%51.6% 766
6+307160–14752.1%52.1% 307

2,928 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingTotal edgeResultFinal
ECU @ MEM
2026 · Week 8
MEM -10.5 · 55.5 · final 34–41
 MEM -10.5 · 55.5 Under 55.5 model 55 · edge 0.5 L O 34–41
JMU @ APP
2026 · Week 8
JMU -12.5 · 56.5 · final 31–34
 JMU -12.5 · 56.5 Under 56.5 model 54.5 · edge 2 L O 31–34
LIB @ KENN
2026 · Week 8
LIB -8.5 · 50.5 · final 34–6
 LIB -8.5 · 50.5 Under 50.5 model 48 · edge 2.5 W U 34–6
NMSU @ SHSU
2026 · Week 8
NMSU -3 · 46.5 · final 30–24
 NMSU -3 · 46.5 Over 46.5 model 47.5 · edge 1 W O 30–24
USA @ MRSH
2026 · Week 8
USA -1.5 · 66.5 · final 13–20
 USA -1.5 · 66.5 Under 66.5 model 64.5 · edge 2 W U 13–20
MTSU @ FIU
2026 · Week 8
FIU -10.5 · 46.5 · final 26–23
 FIU -10.5 · 46.5 Under 46.5 model 45 · edge 1.5 L O 26–23
MOST @ DEL
2026 · Week 8
DEL -3 · 54.5 · final 38–61
 DEL -3 · 54.5 Over 54.5 model 56.5 · edge 2 W O 38–61
NEB @ ORE
2026 · Week 7
ORE -6.5 · 50.5 · final 14–17
 ORE -6.5 · 50.5 Over 50.5 model 54.5 · edge 4 L U 14–17
WAKE @ CAL
2026 · Week 7
WAKE -10 · 54.5 · final 41–7
 WAKE -10 · 54.5 Under 54.5 model 53.5 · edge 1 W U 41–7
FRES @ SDSU
2026 · Week 7
FRES -6.5 · 46.5 · final 23–26
 FRES -6.5 · 46.5 Under 46.5 model 45.5 · edge 1 L O 23–26
UNM @ HAW
2026 · Week 7
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10
 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 Over 46.5 model 48 · edge 1.5 L U 21–10
OHIO @ SAC
2026 · Week 7
OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 · final 48–7
 OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 Over 46.5 model 49.5 · edge 3 W O 48–7
SJSU @ UTEP
2026 · Week 7
SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 · final 24–11
 SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 Over 46.5 model 51 · edge 4.5 L U 24–11
NAVY @ UTSA
2026 · Week 7
UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 · final 34–38
 UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 Over 52.5 model 53.5 · edge 1 W O 34–38
LT @ ULM
2026 · Week 7
LT -13.5 · 55.5 · final 24–0
 LT -13.5 · 55.5 Under 55.5 model 54.5 · edge 1 W U 24–0
ND @ BYU
2026 · Week 7
ND -10.5 · 47.5 · final 24–28
 ND -10.5 · 47.5 Over 47.5 model 50.5 · edge 3 W O 24–28
WIS @ UCLA
2026 · Week 7
UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 7–17
 UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 Over 42.5 model 46.5 · edge 4 L U 7–17
OKST @ HOU
2026 · Week 7
HOU -4 · 62.5 · final 32–35
 HOU -4 · 62.5 Under 62.5 model 58 · edge 4.5 L O 32–35
ELON @ STAN
2026 · Week 7
STAN -33.5 · 55.5 · final 7–34
 STAN -33.5 · 55.5 Under 55.5 model 50 · edge 5.5 W U 7–34
LOU @ SYR
2026 · Week 7
LOU -14.5 · 56.5 · final 34–26
 LOU -14.5 · 56.5 Over 56.5 model 57.5 · edge 1 W O 34–26
FSU @ MIA
2026 · Week 7
MIA -20.5 · 57.5 · final 35–43
 MIA -20.5 · 57.5 Over 57.5 model 58 · edge 0.5 W O 35–43
ARK @ VAN
2026 · Week 7
VAN -5.5 · 48.5 · final 31–21
 VAN -5.5 · 48.5 Over 48.5 model 51.5 · edge 3 W O 31–21
TCU @ BAY
2026 · Week 7
BAY -3.5 · 50.5 · final 17–6
 BAY -3.5 · 50.5 Under 50.5 model 49.5 · edge 1 W U 17–6
KENT @ USF
2026 · Week 7
USF -20.5 · 46.5 · final 2–29
 USF -20.5 · 46.5 Under 46.5 model 46 · edge 0.5 W U 2–29
NEV @ NDSU
2026 · Week 7
NDSU -14.5 · 42.5 · final 17–31
 NDSU -14.5 · 42.5 Over 42.5 model 47 · edge 4.5 W O 17–31
ARST @ USM
2026 · Week 7
ARST -5.5 · 61.5 · final 23–13
 ARST -5.5 · 61.5 Under 61.5 model 57.5 · edge 4 W U 23–13
WSU @ ORST
2026 · Week 7
ORST -18.5 · 52.5 · final 30–48
 ORST -18.5 · 52.5 Under 52.5 model 49 · edge 3.5 L O 30–48
TROY @ UL
2026 · Week 7
UL -3 · 49.5 · final 6–33
 UL -3 · 49.5 Under 49.5 model 46.5 · edge 3 W U 6–33
TLSA @ RICE
2026 · Week 7
TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 · final 38–17
 TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 Under 47.5 model 45.5 · edge 2 L O 38–17
AUB @ UGA
2026 · Week 7
UGA -19.5 · 50.5 · final 27–24
 UGA -19.5 · 50.5 Under 50.5 model 48 · edge 2.5 L O 27–24
ALA @ TENN
2026 · Week 7
ALA -7.5 · 50.5 · final 10–26
 ALA -7.5 · 50.5 Over 50.5 model 53 · edge 2.5 L U 10–26
MIZ @ MISS
2026 · Week 7
MISS -4 · 57.5 · final 3–31
 MISS -4 · 57.5 Under 57.5 model 52 · edge 5.5 W U 3–31
ASU @ TTU
2026 · Week 7
TTU -16.5 · 50.5 · final 25–53
 TTU -16.5 · 50.5 Over 50.5 model 51.5 · edge 1 W O 25–53
GT @ VT
2026 · Week 7
VT -8.5 · 55.5 · final 24–34
 VT -8.5 · 55.5 Under 55.5 model 52.5 · edge 3 L O 24–34
UNC @ DUKE
2026 · Week 7
DUKE -3 · 46.5 · final 24–20
 DUKE -3 · 46.5 Under 46.5 model 44.5 · edge 2 W U 24–20
PSU @ MICH
2026 · Week 7
MICH -6 · 43.5 · final 18–21
 MICH -6 · 43.5 Over 43.5 model 45 · edge 1.5 L U 18–21
NIU @ WYO
2026 · Week 7
WYO -7 · 42.5 · final 23–41
 WYO -7 · 42.5 Under 42.5 model 39.5 · edge 3 L O 23–41
UNLV @ AFA
2026 · Week 7
AFA -1.5 · 49.5 · final 31–41
 AFA -1.5 · 49.5 Under 49.5 model 48 · edge 1.5 L O 31–41
TOL @ EMU
2026 · Week 7
TOL -7.5 · 51.5 · final 34–14
 TOL -7.5 · 51.5 Over 51.5 model 54 · edge 2.5 L U 34–14
AKR @ M-OH
2026 · Week 7
M-OH -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–34
 M-OH -9.5 · 47.5 Over 47.5 model 51 · edge 3.5 W O 14–34
CIT @ TA&M
2026 · Week 7
TA&M -46.5 · 56.5 · final 0–41
 TA&M -46.5 · 56.5 Under 56.5 model 55.5 · edge 1 W U 0–41
MASS @ BUFF
2026 · Week 7
BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 · final 18–25
 BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 Over 43.5 model 47.5 · edge 4 L U 18–25
RUTG @ MD
2026 · Week 7
MD -5.5 · 55.5 · final 37–30
 MD -5.5 · 55.5 Under 55.5 model 54.5 · edge 1 L O 37–30
OSU @ IU
2026 · Week 7
OSU -3 · 49.5 · final 19–15
 OSU -3 · 49.5 Over 49.5 model 53 · edge 3.5 L U 19–15
FLA @ TEX
2026 · Week 7
TEX -13.5 · 51.5 · final 27–24
 TEX -13.5 · 51.5 Over 51.5 model 54 · edge 2.5 L U 27–24
MSST @ LSU
2026 · Week 7
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31
 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 Over 56.5 model 57.5 · edge 1 L U 0–31
UVA @ SMU
2026 · Week 7
SMU -10 · 51.5 · final 13–23
 SMU -10 · 51.5 Over 51.5 model 52 · edge 0.5 L U 13–23
NU @ MSU
2026 · Week 7
NU -7.5 · 50.5 · final 24–21
 NU -7.5 · 50.5 Under 50.5 model 49.5 · edge 1 W U 24–21
CIN @ WVU
2026 · Week 7
WVU -1.5 · 64.5 · final 42–45
 WVU -1.5 · 64.5 Under 64.5 model 59.5 · edge 5 L O 42–45
CHSO @ CLEM
2026 · Week 7
CLEM -42.5 · 53.5 · final 0–37
 CLEM -42.5 · 53.5 Under 53.5 model 38 · edge 15.5 W U 0–37
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 1,000
Total edge is the model’s projected total minus the closing total, in points; the side is Over when the model projects more points than the market, Under when fewer. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.