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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

94 games · 2026 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games94100%By halftime22%In Q377%In Q43941%In OT11%Stayed under4548%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands1617%Over cashed2324%Leader lost the game1112%
52% went over. Of the 49 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 26% of games.

All 94 games

2026 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 CHI -3 50.5 10344854 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over
 24–30
2026 · Week 6
 SF -7.5 51.5 16233340 U WSH Q4 17–23
2026 · Week 6
 DAL -1.5 54.5 7172736 U GB Q1 13–23
2026 · Week 6
 KC -7.5 41.5 12222528 U KC Q2 6–22
2026 · Week 6
 BUF -5.5 54.5 10263663 Q4 LV Q4
Late over
 33–30
2026 · Week 6
 LAR -13.5 51.5 6182134 U ARI Q1 18–16
2026 · Week 6
 CHI -1.5 50.5 14283554 Q4 CHI Q1 31–23
2026 · Week 6
 BAL -3 40.5 10101323 U CLE Q4 10–13
2026 · Week 6
 IND -6.5 43.5 0131946 Q4 TEN Q4
Late over
 26–20
2026 · Week 6
 NE -7.5 42.5 10203045 Q4 NYJ Q3
Late over
 19–26
2026 · Week 6
 NO -1.5 46.5 7203761 Q4 NO Q3 34–27
2026 · Week 6
 CAR -3 39.5 3172039 U CAR Q3 25–14
2026 · Week 6
 PIT -2.5 37.5 316193845 Q4 PIT OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–19
2026 · Week 6
 JAX -2.5 42.5 7315265 Q3 HOU Q1 34–31
2026 · Week 6
 SEA -3 40.5 317172831 U DEN Q2 14–17
2026 · Week 5
 LAR -3.5 55.5 620336871 Q4 BUF Q1
Late over
 37–34
2026 · Week 5
 ATL -3 44.5 1023324653 Q4 BAL Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 30–23
2026 · Week 5
 DET -4.5 55.5 7315266 Q4 DET Q2 45–21
2026 · Week 5
 SEA -3 46.5 14344761 Q3 SF Q4 32–29
2026 · Week 5
 DEN -3 42.5 7132740 U DEN Q4
Late cover flip
 23–17
2026 · Week 5
 CHI -1.5 46.5 7213038 U GB Q1 7–31
2026 · Week 5
 HOU -6.5 37.5 6152229 U HOU Q2 26–3
2026 · Week 5
 CIN -7.5 45.5 14283855 Q4 MIA Q4
Late cover flip
 31–24
2026 · Week 5
 NE -8.5 51.5 21284562 Q4 NE Q2 17–45
2026 · Week 5
 MIN -2.5 41.5 3132636 U MIN Q4 23–13
2026 · Week 5
 NYJ -2.5 38.5 10131329 U NYJ Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 12–17
2026 · Week 5
 PIT -3 42.5 13304356 Q3 PIT Q2 22–34
2026 · Week 5
 WSH -3.5 41.5 915325454 Q4 NYG Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–27
2026 · Week 5
 JAX -7.5 41.5 7212436 U PHI Q1
Lead lost
 17–19
2026 · Week 5
 DAL -8.5 49.5 7173440 U TB Q1 24–16
2026 · Week 4
 NO -1.5 48.5 14314169 Q4 ATL Q1 45–24
2026 · Week 4
 DET -3.5 52.5 10324858 Q4 CAR Q1
Late over
 26–32
2026 · Week 4
 KC -3.5 47.5 14232357 Q4 LV Q1
Late over
 30–27
2026 · Week 4
 SF -3 48.5 361338 U SF Q3 14–24
2026 · Week 4
 SEA -7 43.5 10264353 Q4 Push
Late cover flip
 23–30
2026 · Week 4
 MIN -10 38.5 392225 U MIA Q1 10–15
2026 · Week 4
 BUF -7 49.5 7313855 Q4 NE Q1
Late over
 29–26
2026 · Week 4
 CHI -3.5 43.5 7162635 U CHI Q1 12–23
2026 · Week 4
 CIN -2.5 51.5 3162639 U JAX Q1 22–17
2026 · Week 4
 ARI -2.5 43.5 17365160 Q3 NYG Q2 24–36
2026 · Week 4
 LAR -4.5 42.5 6303044 Q4 PHI Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 GB -2.5 38.5 0172431 U GB Q2 17–14
2026 · Week 4
 BAL -11.5 41.5 14313442 Q4 TEN Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 18–24
2026 · Week 4
 HOU -3 48.5 13224364 Q4 DAL Q4 34–30
2026 · Week 4
 IND -4.5 46.5 6163343 U IND Q3 30–13
2026 · Week 4
 PIT -2.5 38.5 7313151 Q4 CLE Q2 24–27
2026 · Week 3
 PHI -3 42.5 7172734 U CHI Q1 7–27
2026 · Week 3
 DEN -1.5 44.5 7163256 Q4 DEN Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–30
2026 · Week 3
 BAL -3 54.5 17304565 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2026 · Week 3
 NO -3.5 44.5 9294962 Q3 LV Q4 35–27
2026 · Week 3
 SF -7.5 48.5 7233666 Q4 ARI Q4
Late cover flip
 30–36
2026 · Week 3
 TB -1.5 42.5 17273039 U MIN Q1 23–16
2026 · Week 3
 BUF -7 50.5 10202340 U BUF Q4
Late cover flip
 16–24
2026 · Week 3
 CAR -2.5 41.5 0131939 U CLE Q1 18–21
2026 · Week 3
 DET -7 49.5 0172755 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 24–31
2026 · Week 3
 HOU -1.5 42.5 3202036 U IND Q1 17–19
2026 · Week 3
 KC -10 45.5 14212434 U KC Q4
Late cover flip
 24–10
2026 · Week 3
 NYG -2.5 37.5 391219 U NYG Q1 7–12
2026 · Week 3
 CIN -3.5 42.5 21344457 Q3 PIT Q1 27–30
2026 · Week 3
 SEA -8.5 40.5 7274164 Q3 WSH Q1 31–33
2026 · Week 3
 JAX -3 46.5 0173141 U JAX Q2 6–35
2026 · Week 3
 GB -4.5 43.5 14243149 Q4 ATL Q1
Late over
 35–14
2026 · Week 2
 LAR -7 47.5 7172734 U LAR Q2 6–28
2026 · Week 2
 KC -6 46.5 1737445463 Q4 IND Q1 30–33
2026 · Week 2
 DAL -4.5 51.5 10274057 Q4 DAL Q1
Late over
 20–37
2026 · Week 2
 SEA -3.5 40.5 7142438 U SEA Q3 31–7
2026 · Week 2
 SF -12.5 44.5 7204148 Q4 SF Q3
Late over
 13–35
2026 · Week 2
 DEN -2.5 45.5 0131933 U DEN Q4 13–20
2026 · Week 2
 LAC -6.5 43.5 0173140 U LV Q1 26–14
2026 · Week 2
 CAR -2.5 43.5 10233737 U CAR Q1 34–3
2026 · Week 2
 CHI -4.5 46.5 69912 U MIN Q1 9–3
2026 · Week 2
 PHI -7 39.5 7243444 Q4 TEN Q1
Late over
 24–20
2026 · Week 2
 NE -4.5 41.5 7131623 U NE Q1 3–20
2026 · Week 2
 GB -3.5 44.5 014213437 U NYJ Q1
Lead lost
 20–17
2026 · Week 2
 TB -8.5 41.5 9153242 Q4 CLE Q1
Late over Lead lost
 23–19
2026 · Week 2
 BAL -8.5 45.5 7202641 U NO Q1 24–17
2026 · Week 2
 HOU -3 45.5 0102326 U CIN Q1 20–6
2026 · Week 2
 BUF -5.5 54.5 14375172 Q4 BUF Q1 31–41
2026 · Week 1
 KC -2.5 42.5 14213441 U KC Q2 10–31
2026 · Week 1
 DAL -3 47.5 7213548 Q4 NYG Q1 20–28
2026 · Week 1
 LV -3 40.5 7234040 U LV Q1 13–27
2026 · Week 1
 MIN -2.5 46.5 12293961 Q4 MIN Q4 22–39
2026 · Week 1
 PHI -6 43.5 3232646 Q4 WSH Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 22–24
2026 · Week 1
 LAC -8.5 47.5 14203040 U ARI Q1 26–14
2026 · Week 1
 CIN -3.5 50.5 17344760 Q4 CIN Q1 27–33
2026 · Week 1
 DET -7 49.5 77354861 OT NO Q4
Late over
 30–31
2026 · Week 1
 TEN -1.5 39.5 10132333 U NYJ Q1 23–10
2026 · Week 1
 BAL -3 48.5 20444764 Q4 BAL Q1 41–23
2026 · Week 1
 PIT -6.5 40.5 10202333 U PIT Q4 13–20
2026 · Week 1
 CHI -3 47.5 21557696 Q2 CHI Q1 59–37
2026 · Week 1
 JAX -8.5 40.5 14243744 Q4 JAX Q1
Late over
 10–34
2026 · Week 1
 BUF -1.5 44.5 10454867 Q2 BUF Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 36–31
2026 · Week 1
 LAR -3.5 47.5 3172434 U SF Q1 27–7
2026 · Week 1
 SEA -3 44.5 071323 U Push 10–13
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 46
Q2 14% 13
Q3 9% 8
Q4 23% 22
OT 1% 1
Push 4% 4
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 68% of 85 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 70% of 90 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over9100% 9
1–3580% 4
4–71090% 9
8–101090% 9
11–141275% 9
15–171414% 2
18–211127% 3
22+2317% 4
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.