Crisler Center · at Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -10.5✓ MSU covered by 0.5
MICH -10.5✓ MSU covered by 0.5Closing total152.5Over by 17.5
 MSU | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 25-5 | Record | 28-2 |
| 15-15 | ATS | 15-15 |
| 13-17 | O/U | 11-19 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 71–81 MICH · ✓ MICH (82%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 41 | 39 | 80 |
| MICH | 42 | 48 | 90 |
1st half: MSU 41, MICH 42 (MICH by 1). The model had MICH by 6.2 and a total of 71.2 (actual 83).
Team stats
| MSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-65 45% | Field goals | 27-55 49% |
| 6-18 33% | 3-pointers | 10-22 45% |
| 16-20 80% | Free throws | 26-29 90% |
| 32 10 off | Rebounds | 35 8 off |
| 16 | Assists | 12 |
| 5 | Steals | 2 |
| 3 | Blocks | 7 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 37 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 5-13 | 2-3 |
| Jordan Scott F | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 33 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 10-13 | 2-4 |
| Coen Carr F | 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Carson Cooper C | 29 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 8-14 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-5 |
| Cam Ward F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Divine Ugochukwu, Trey Fort, Kaleb Glenn
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 38 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 8-12 | 5-6 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 6-13 | 1-3 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 24 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| Aday Mara C | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 28 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-1 |
| Trey McKenney G | 19 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Will Tschetter F | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Howard Eisley Jr., Oscar Goodman, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel, L.J. Cason, Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -10.5
ModelMICH -10.6
Model edgeMICH +0.1
L MSU covered
Total
Market152.5
Model152.3
Model edgeUnder 0.2
L Over
Projected score
MSU 70.8 · MICH 81.4
MSU 80 · MICH 90
Win probability
MICH 82%
1st half
Spread
MICH -6.2
MICH -1.0
Total
71.2
83 points
Projected score
MSU 32.5 · MICH 38.7
MSU 41 · MICH 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -11.5
1 → MSU
CloseMICH -10.5
1 pt toward MSU
Total
Open150.5
▲ 2
Close152.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MSU +425 · MICH -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -11.5 · closed MICH -10.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MICH -10.5 matches the line
model MICH -10.5 = line ✓
Opened 150.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 152.5 matches the line
model 152.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MSU 6–3 MICHMSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MSU 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025-26 | MICH 83 @ MSU 71 | MSU +2.5 | MICH W |
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | MICH 62 @ MSU 79 | MSU -7.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | MSU 75 @ MICH 62 | MICH -3.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | MSU 73 @ MICH 63 | MICH +5.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | MICH 62 @ MSU 81 | MSU -11.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
30 games played
Straight up
25-5
83% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-17
43% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vsMICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @ MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs ILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 13 | @ WIS | L 71-92 | -1.5 | L −22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | vs UCLA | W 82-59 | -8.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 22 | vs OSU | W 66-60 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 26 | @ PUR | W 76-74 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @IU | W 77-64 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 5 | vsRUTG | W 91-87 | -20.5 | L −16.5 | 141.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
−22.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+14.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−4.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+7.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
+10.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
−16.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
+13.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+1.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−20.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+6.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
−3.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
+36.5
over 13under 17avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
30 games played
Straight up
28-2
93% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-19
37% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsOAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vsRUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vsUSC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vsIU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vsOSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vsNEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsUCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vsDUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | @ILL | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 5 | @IOWA | W 71-68 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
+12.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−6.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
−5.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−7.5
over 11under 19avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
25-5 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rutgers91–87
- W@ Indiana77–64
- W@ Purdue76–74
- Wvs Ohio State66–60
- Wvs UCLA82–59
3 days since their last game.
Michigan
28-2 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Iowa71–68
- W@ Illinois84–70
- Wvs Minnesota77–67
- Lvs Duke63–68
- W@ Purdue91–80
3 days since their last game.