Matthew Knight Arena · at Oregon · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -10.5✓ MSU covered by 5.5
MSU -10.5✓ MSU covered by 5.5Closing total139.5Under by 19.5
| MSU | This season | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| 16-2 | Record | 8-10 |
| 9-9 | ATS | 6-12 |
| 5-13 | O/U | 9-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 75–67 ORE · ✓ MSU (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 28 | 40 | 68 |
| ORE | 26 | 26 | 52 |
1st half: MSU 28, ORE 26 (MSU by 2). The model had MSU by 4.8 and a total of 66.5 (actual 54).
Team stats
| MSU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-49 57% | Field goals | 20-51 39% |
| 7-20 35% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 5-9 56% | Free throws | 5-11 45% |
| 31 6 off | Rebounds | 24 7 off |
| 16 | Assists | 10 |
| 3 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Cooper C | 33 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 32 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 5-12 | 2-6 |
| Coen Carr F | 27 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 6-9 | 3-5 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 26 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Jordan Scott F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Kur Teng G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kaleb Glenn
| ORE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takai Simpkins G | 33 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | 27 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-13 | 0-3 |
| Sean Stewart F | 27 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Wei Lin G | 23 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Devon Pryor G | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dez Lindsay F | 25 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Drew Carter G | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Ege Demir C | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Oleksandr Kobzystyi F | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Luke Johnson F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Miles Stewart, Jamari Phillips, Jackson Shelstad, Efe Vatan, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Nate Bittle
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -9.5
1 → MSU
CloseMSU -10.5
1 pt toward MSU
Total
Open137.5
▲ 2
Close139.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MSU -625 · ORE +455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -9.5 · closed MSU -10.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MSU -8
model MSU -8
Opened 137.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 2 upmodel 142
model 142
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -10.5 | MSU -7.9 | ORE +2.6 | L MSU covered |
| Total | 139.5 | 141.9 | Over 2.4 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MSU 74.9 · ORE 67 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -4.8 | MSU -2.0 |
| 1H total | 66.5 | 54 |
| 1H projected score | MSU 35.7 · ORE 30.8 | MSU 28 · ORE 26 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| ORE | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSU 3–0 OREMSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 3 meetings · MSU 3-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | ORE 64 vs MSU 74 | MSU -5.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | ORE 74 @ MSU 86 | MSU -8.5 | MSU W |
| Nov 25, 2022-23 | ORE 70 vs MSU 74 | MSU -3.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
18 games played
Straight up
16-2
89% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-13
28% overs · avg −4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
over 5under 13avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Oregon
18 games played
Straight up
8-10
44% wins
Against the spread
6-12
33% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-9
50% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs HAW | W 60-59 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 7 | vs RICE | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs SDST | W 83-69 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 17 | vs ORST | W 87-75 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 24 | vs AUB | L 73-84 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs SDSU | L 80-97 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 27 | vs CREI | L 66-76 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 2 | vsUSC | L 77-82 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ UCLA | L 63-74 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCD | W 104-62 | -13.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vs PORT | W 94-69 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs GONZ | L 82-91 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | vs OMA | W 80-57 | -21.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 2 | @ MD | W 64-54 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 5 | @ RUTG | L 85-88 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 8 | vs OSU | L 62-72 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 13 | @NEB | L 55-90 | +10.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs MICH | L 71-81 | +18.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−10.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−11.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
−2.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
−1.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
−6.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
−19.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−7.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
−2.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−2.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+28.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+5.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+3.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
+1.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
+8.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
−7.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−11.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−24.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
+8.5
covered 6didn’t cover 12avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−25.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−15.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
+6.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
+20.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
+1.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
+35.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−8.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
+4.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−9.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+19.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+8.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+17.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
−14.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
−28.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
+33.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−18.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−1.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
−5.5
over 9under 9avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
16-2 overall · 6-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Washington80–63
- Wvs Indiana81–60
- Wvs Northwestern76–66
- Wvs USC80–51
- L@ Nebraska56–58
3 days since their last game.
Oregon
8-10 overall · 1-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Michigan71–81
- L@ Nebraska55–90
- Lvs Ohio State62–72
- L@ Rutgers85–88
- W@ Maryland64–54
3 days since their last game.