Breslin Center · at Michigan St
Closing line
MSU -23.5✓ TOL covered by 0.5
MSU -23.5✓ TOL covered by 0.5Closing total150.5Over by 10.5
 TOL | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | Record | 9-1 |
| 4-5 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 3-6 | O/U | 3-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 63–87 MSU · ✓ MSU (98%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 28 | 41 | 69 |
| MSU | 58 | 34 | 92 |
1st half: TOL 28, MSU 58 (MSU by 30). The model had MSU by 13.9 and a total of 70.1 (actual 86).
Team stats
| TOL | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-64 36% | Field goals | 34-67 51% |
| 10-27 37% | 3-pointers | 10-23 43% |
| 13-17 76% | Free throws | 14-19 74% |
| 24 6 off | Rebounds | 54 18 off |
| 12 | Assists | 26 |
| 11 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 36 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 35 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 10-15 | 3-4 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 31 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-8 |
| Sean Craig F | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-4 |
| Austin Parks C | 21 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Will James Jr. G | 19 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| London Praytor F | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Mynor Strong G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Phoenix Glassnor G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 27 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4-11 | 1-5 |
| Carson Cooper C | 23 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 22 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 7-13 | 2-3 |
| Coen Carr F | 21 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 17 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Scott F | 17 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Kur Teng G | 17 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 5-9 | 4-5 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 14 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Trey Fort G | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Colin Walton F | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Nick Sanders G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Kaleb Glenn
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -23.5
no move
CloseMSU -23.5
No change since the open
Total
Open151.5
▼ 1
Close150.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TOL +2000 · MSU -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -23.5 · unchangedmodel MSU -23.5 matches the line
model MSU -23.5 = line ✓
Opened 151.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 downmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -23.5 | MSU -23.4 | TOL +0.1 | W TOL covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 149.7 | Under 0.8 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | TOL 63.2 · MSU 86.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -13.9 | MSU -30.0 |
| 1H total | 70.1 | 86 |
| 1H projected score | TOL 28.1 · MSU 42 | TOL 28 · MSU 58 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOLlast 9 | 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% | 3-6 33% |
| MSU | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TOL 0–1 MSUMSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TOL 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021-22 | TOL 68 @ MSU 81 | MSU -13.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
9 games played
Straight up
4-5
44% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
over 3under 6avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
10 games played
Straight up
9-1
90% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-7
30% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vsDETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
over 3under 7avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Robert Morris70–75
- L@ Oakland97–98
- Lvs Belmont72–87
- Wvs Troy75–68
- Wvs Youngstown St92–75
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
9-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Penn State76–72
- Lvs Duke60–66
- Wvs Iowa71–52
- Wvs North Carolina74–58
- Wvs East Carolina89–56
3 days since their last game.