Breslin Center · at Michigan St
Closing line
MSU -30.5✓ DETM covered by 2.5
MSU -30.5✓ DETM covered by 2.5Closing total149.5Under by 9.5
 DETM | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DETM 60–91 MSU · ✓ MSU (100%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETM | 25 | 31 | 56 |
| MSU | 41 | 43 | 84 |
1st half: DETM 25, MSU 41 (MSU by 16). The model had MSU by 18.1 and a total of 70.6 (actual 66).
Team stats
| DETM | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-60 37% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 5-20 25% | 3-pointers | 8-27 30% |
| 7-8 88% | Free throws | 20-26 77% |
| 31 11 off | Rebounds | 42 16 off |
| 9 | Assists | 18 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| DETM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Lovejoy G | 27 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Xavier Istomin-Monroe C | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Legend Geeter F | 19 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Ayden Carter G | 19 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-3 |
| TJ Nadeau G | 16 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| London Maiden F | 20 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Nate Johnson G | 18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Ryan Kalambay F | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Lance Stone G | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-5 |
| Keshawn Fisher G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-8 | 0-4 |
| Tyler Spratt G | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Jared Lary G | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Je'kel Cotton G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zak Abdalla
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coen Carr F | 29 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 28 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 7-12 | 2-4 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 27 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Carson Cooper C | 20 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Ward F | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 15 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Jordan Scott F | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kaleb Glenn
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSU -30.5
ModelMSU -30.3
Model edgeDETM +0.2
W DETM covered
Total
Market149.5
Model150.8
Model edgeOver 1.3
L Under
Projected score
DETM 60.3 · MSU 90.5
DETM 56 · MSU 84
Win probability
MSU 100%
1st half
Spread
MSU -18.1
MSU -16.0
Total
70.6
66 points
Projected score
DETM 26.3 · MSU 44.4
DETM 25 · MSU 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -31.5
1 → DETM
CloseMSU -30.5
1 pt toward DETM
Total
Open148.5
▲ 1
Close149.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
DETM +3500 · MSU -50000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -31.5 · closed MSU -30.5 · moved 1 toward DETMmodel MSU -30.5 matches the line
model MSU -30.5 = line ✓
Opened 148.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 1 upmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETMlast 4 | 0-4 0% | 1-3 25% | 3-1 75% |
| MSUlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Detroit Mercy
4 games played
Straight up
0-4
0% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg −7.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
UIC
UICL 71-91
−10.5
7
@
ND
NDL 70-102
−10.5
15
@
TOL
TOLL 83-90
+3.5
18
vs
EMU
EMUL 62-72
−11.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UIC
UICL 71-91
+19.5
7
@ND
NDL 70-102
+24.5
15
@TOL
TOLL 83-90
+13.5
18
vsEMU
EMUL 62-72
−23.5
over 3under 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
COLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vs
ARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vs
SJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vs
UK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
over 1under 3avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Detroit Mercy
0-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs E Michigan62–72
- L@ Toledo83–90
- L@ Notre Dame70–102
- L@ UIC71–91
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Kentucky83–66
- Wvs San José St79–60
- Wvs Arkansas69–66
- Wvs Colgate80–69
3 days since their last game.