Capital One Arena · at Georgetown
Line
GTWN -23.5moved 1 toward L-MD
Total150.5no move
| This season | GTWN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects GTWN 88–61 · win probability GTWN 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
GTWN -23.5
moved 1 toward L-MD
Total
150.5
model 149.3 · Under by 1
Model edge
GTWN by 3
model vs market
Public on the spread
73% L-MD
67% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GTWN has more of the edges
L-MD 0, GTWN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
L-MD offense vs GTWN defense
Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 46th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
L-MD has played the 299th-hardest schedule, GTWN the 47th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GTWN offense vs L-MD defense
Offense 75th of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings
Shooting
Effective FG%: L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7; GTWN 49.6 and allows 50.0
Free throws
Free throw rate: L-MD 29.9, GTWN 37.3. Allowed: L-MD 32.7, GTWN 33.9
Home court
GTWN at home. This season: GTWN 0-0 at home, L-MD 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: L-MD plays 69.3 a game (165th fastest), GTWN 67.8 (238th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%; GTWN hits 31.8% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 47.2% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: L-MD 27.6%, GTWN 32.5%. Defensive: L-MD 71.0%, GTWN 68.5%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: L-MD 15.4%, GTWN 15.8%. Forced: L-MD 15.4%, GTWN 16.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: L-MD 33%, GTWN 38%. Transfers in: L-MD 5, GTWN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog | 4513 | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 150 to 154.5 | 2755 | 75% | 51% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenGTWN -24.5
1 → L-MD
NowGTWN -23.5
1 pt toward L-MD
Total
Open150.5
no move
Now150.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
L-MD +2500 · GTWN -10000
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened GTWN -24.5 · now GTWN -23.5 · moved 1 toward L-MDmodel GTWN -26.5
model GTWN -26.5
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 150.5TotalUnder 150.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Money is 34 pts ahead of bets on L-MD
Books
7 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-MD | GTWN | Over | Under | L-MD | GTWN | |
| BetMGMMGM | -23.5-110 | +23.5-110 | 150.5-110 | 150.5-110 | +2200 | -10000 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -23.5-110 | +23.5-110 | 150-110 | 150-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -24.5-132 | +24.5+104 | 150.5-112 | 150.5-114 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -23.5-110 | +23.5-110 | 150-110 | 150-110 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | -23.5-110 | +23.5-110 | 150.5-110 | 150.5-110 | +2500 | -9000 |
| FanDuelFD | -23.5-110 | +23.5-110 | 151.5-115 | 151.5-105 | +2500 | -10000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -23.5-106 | +23.5-106 | 150-108 | 150-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | GTWN -23.5 | GTWN -26.5 | GTWN +3.0 |
| Total | 150.5 | 149.3 | Under 1.2 |
| Projected score | — | L-MD 61.4 · GTWN 87.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | GTWN -15.7 | — |
| 1H total | 69.8 | — |
| 1H projected score | L-MD 27.1 · GTWN 42.7 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | |
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Loyola MD
30 games played
Straight up
10-20
33% wins
Against the spread
16-14
53% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-13
57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | L 56-67 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 11 | vs | L 64-66 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ | L 82-85 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 19 | @ | L 78-92 | +14.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 21 | @ | L 46-88 | +35.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 30 | vs | W 95-84 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 3 | @ | L 71-93 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 9 | @ | L 70-86 | -2.5 | L −18.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 13 | vs | L 73-81 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 151.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 21 | @ | L 79-86 | +23.5 | W +16.5 | 146.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @ | L 69-84 | +8.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 64-79 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ | W 84-76 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 67-70 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 14 | vs | L 80-86 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 74-57 | +1.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 19 | @ | L 81-88 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 24 | vs | W 67-62 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 28 | vs | W 77-68 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 71-87 | +9.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | vs | W 89-84 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 69-78 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 11 | @ | W 68-54 | +3.5 | W +17.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 15 | vs | W 83-73 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 18 | vs | L 77-87 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 98-101 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 199 |
| Feb 25 | vs | L 51-78 | +6.5 | L −20.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 76-62 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 5 | @ | L 77-90 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
TOW
L 56-67
−2.5
11
vs
NJIT
L 64-66
−12.5
15
vs
STO
W 74-63
+4.5
16
@
FAIR
L 82-85
+2.5
19
@
DUQ
L 78-92
+0.5
21
@
UK
L 46-88
−6.5
30
vs
COPP
W 95-84
+1.5
3
@
HAMP
L 71-93
−15.5
9
@
VMI
L 70-86
−18.5
13
vs
MSM
L 73-81
−5.5
21
@
GMU
L 79-86
+16.5
31
@
AMER
L 69-84
−6.5
3
vs
LAF
L 64-79
−13.5
7
@
ARMY
W 84-76
+12.5
10
@
BUCK
L 67-70
+3.5
14
vs
COLG
L 80-86
+2.5
17
vs
BU
W 74-57
+18.5
19
@
LEH
L 81-88
−3.5
24
vs
BUCK
W 67-62
+2.5
28
vs
AMER
W 77-68
+13.5
31
@
NAVY
L 71-87
−6.5
4
vs
LEH
W 89-84
+2.5
7
@
BU
L 69-78
−3.5
11
@
LAF
W 68-54
+17.5
15
vs
HC
W 83-73
+5.5
18
vs
ARMY
L 77-87
−14.5
21
@
COLG
L 98-101
+5.5
25
vs
NAVY
L 51-78
−20.5
28
@
HC
W 76-62
+15.5
5
@
COLG
L 77-90
−6.5
covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
TOW
L 56-67
−18.5
11
vs
NJIT
L 64-66
−9.5
15
vs
STO
W 74-63
−1.5
16
@
FAIR
L 82-85
+31.5
19
@
DUQ
L 78-92
+19.5
21
@
UK
L 46-88
−25.5
30
vs
COPP
W 95-84
+35.5
3
@
HAMP
L 71-93
+21.5
9
@
VMI
L 70-86
+4.5
13
vs
MSM
L 73-81
+2.5
21
@
GMU
L 79-86
+18.5
31
@
AMER
L 69-84
−1.5
3
vs
LAF
L 64-79
−9.5
7
@
ARMY
W 84-76
+13.5
10
@
BUCK
L 67-70
−6.5
14
vs
COLG
L 80-86
+15.5
17
vs
BU
W 74-57
−17.5
19
@
LEH
L 81-88
+19.5
24
vs
BUCK
W 67-62
−18.5
28
vs
AMER
W 77-68
−2.5
31
@
NAVY
L 71-87
+14.5
4
vs
LEH
W 89-84
+23.5
7
@
BU
L 69-78
+1.5
11
@
LAF
W 68-54
−25.5
15
vs
HC
W 83-73
+9.5
18
vs
ARMY
L 77-87
+14.5
21
@
COLG
L 98-101
+48.5
25
vs
NAVY
L 51-78
−18.5
28
@
HC
W 76-62
−13.5
5
@
COLG
L 77-90
+11.5
over 17under 13avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Georgetown
34 games played
Straight up
16-18
47% wins
Against the spread
14-20
41% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-16
53% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 87-70 | -27.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | @ | W 70-60 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs | W 83-70 | -27.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 15 | vs | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 22 | vs | W 92-75 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 27 | vs | L 79-84 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 65-78 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 3 | vs | W 90-81 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 7 | @ | L 61-81 | +10.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs | W 76-68 | -20.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 17 | @ | W 78-69 | +6.5 | W +15.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 20 | vs | L 77-80 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 22 | vs | W 97-67 | -33.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 31 | vs | L 83-95 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ | L 50-56 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 10 | vs | L 67-76 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 13 | @ | L 83-86 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 62-64 | +11.5 | W +9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 51-66 | +8.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 24 | @ | W 81-78 | +5.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 28 | vs | W 70-61 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 31 | @ | W 77-64 | +5.5 | W +18.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 4 | vs | W 76-68 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 14 | @ | L 75-79 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vs | L 89-93 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 47-51 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 136.5 | U 98 |
| Feb 24 | vs | L 60-76 | -2.5 | L −18.5 | 150.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 28 | @ | L 84-91 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 3 | @ | L 69-72 | +15.5 | W +12.5 | 148.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 80-79 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 158.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 11 | vs | W 63-56 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | U 119 |
| Mar 12 | vs | W 78-64 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Mar 13 | vs | L 51-67 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 138.5 | U 118 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
MORG
W 87-70
−10.5
7
@
MD
W 70-60
+14.5
12
vs
BING
W 83-70
−14.5
15
vs
CLEM
W 79-74
+6.5
22
vs
WAG
W 92-75
−8.5
27
vs
DAY
L 79-84
−3.5
28
vs
MIA
L 65-78
−7.5
3
vs
UMBC
W 90-81
−10.5
7
@
UNC
L 61-81
−9.5
13
vs
SPU
W 76-68
−12.5
17
@
MARQ
W 78-69
+15.5
20
vs
XAV
L 77-80
−7.5
22
vs
COPP
W 97-67
−3.5
31
vs
SJU
L 83-95
−3.5
6
@
DEP
L 50-56
−3.5
10
vs
HALL
L 67-76
−7.5
13
@
CREI
L 83-86
+5.5
17
vs
CONN
L 62-64
+9.5
21
@
VILL
L 51-66
−6.5
24
@
PROV
W 81-78
+8.5
28
vs
DEP
W 70-61
+5.5
31
@
BTLR
W 77-64
+18.5
4
vs
CREI
W 76-68
+6.5
7
vs
VILL
L 73-80
−4.5
14
@
CONN
L 75-79
+12.5
18
vs
BTLR
L 89-93
−10.5
21
@
HALL
L 47-51
+2.5
24
vs
MARQ
L 60-76
−18.5
28
@
XAV
L 84-91
−2.5
3
@
SJU
L 69-72
+12.5
7
vs
PROV
W 80-79
−0.5
11
vs
DEP
W 63-56
+5.5
12
vs
VILL
W 78-64
+21.5
13
vs
CONN
L 51-67
−1.5
covered 14didn’t cover 20avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
MORG
W 87-70
+2.5
7
@
MD
W 70-60
−14.5
12
vs
BING
W 83-70
+11.5
15
vs
CLEM
W 79-74
+10.5
22
vs
WAG
W 92-75
+26.5
27
vs
DAY
L 79-84
+17.5
28
vs
MIA
L 65-78
−8.5
3
vs
UMBC
W 90-81
+21.5
7
@
UNC
L 61-81
−7.5
13
vs
SPU
W 76-68
+3.5
17
@
MARQ
W 78-69
−2.5
20
vs
XAV
L 77-80
+7.5
22
vs
COPP
W 97-67
+13.5
31
vs
SJU
L 83-95
+25.5
6
@
DEP
L 50-56
−38.5
10
vs
HALL
L 67-76
+5.5
13
@
CREI
L 83-86
+21.5
17
vs
CONN
L 62-64
−15.5
21
@
VILL
L 51-66
−25.5
24
@
PROV
W 81-78
−0.5
28
vs
DEP
W 70-61
−8.5
31
@
BTLR
W 77-64
−8.5
4
vs
CREI
W 76-68
−2.5
7
vs
VILL
L 73-80
+12.5
14
@
CONN
L 75-79
+15.5
18
vs
BTLR
L 89-93
+34.5
21
@
HALL
L 47-51
−38.5
24
vs
MARQ
L 60-76
−14.5
28
@
XAV
L 84-91
+19.5
3
@
SJU
L 69-72
−7.5
7
vs
PROV
W 80-79
+0.5
11
vs
DEP
W 63-56
−17.5
12
vs
VILL
W 78-64
+1.5
13
vs
CONN
L 51-67
−20.5
over 18under 16avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Georgetown has the better starters
Position by position: Loyola MD 0, Georgetown 4, even 1
Loyola MDBetterGeorgetown
G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 53
→GTWNSmall
G V. Miller TR10.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 74
G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 21
→GTWNBig
F C. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 57
F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 4
→GTWNBig
F J. Parker TR9.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 79
F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast
Score 11
→GTWNBig
C V. Iwuchukwu11.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 89
F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast
Not ranked
=No call
C C. Machot TR8.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast
Score 78
Loyola MDBetterGeorgetown
L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5
→GTWNBig
GTWN defense46th of 366 · +2.3
L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1
→GTWNBig
GTWN offense75th of 366 · +1.3
Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players
→GTWNSmall
Backcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players
→GTWNBig
Frontcourt+6.5 · 4 players
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
→GTWNBig
Bench+1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestL-MD betterGTWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew
Forwards
S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR
Guards
V. Miller26 min · TRJ. Lowe19 min · TRE. Jackson18 min · TRK. Mulready17 minM. Moses1 minM. Van Raaphorst1 min
Forwards
C. Williams30 minJ. Parker22 min · TRJ. CaldwellNewP. PastreNew
Centers
V. Iwuchukwu23 minC. Machot20 min · TRS. Diouf4 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 73.7 #212 | Points per game | 73.6 #215 |
| 1.06 #227 | Points per possession | 1.09 #165 |
| 69.3 #165 | Pace (possessions) | 67.8 #238 |
| Shooting | ||
| 50.4 #219 | Effective FG% | 49.6 #257 |
| 32.5 #251 | 3-point % | 31.8 #285 |
| 47.2 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.2 #271 |
| 29.9 #312 | Free throw rate | 37.3 #121 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #101 | Turnover rate | 15.8 #120 |
| 27.6 #279 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.5 #107 |
| 12.6 #246 | Assists per game | 14.8 #101 |
| Defense | ||
| 78.5 #280 | Points allowed | 72.9 #130 |
| 1.14 #304 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #147 |
| 54.7 #321 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.0 #96 |
| 32.8 #106 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.3 #139 |
| 15.4 #261 | Turnovers forced | 16.2 #211 |
| 71.0 #103 | Defensive rebound rate | 68.5 #228 |
| 6.1 #221 | Steals per game | 6.5 #182 |
| 3.4 #156 | Blocks per game | 3.6 #130 |
Loyola MD
10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Colgate77–90
- W@ Holy Cross76–62
- Lvs Navy51–78
- L@ Colgate98–101
- Lvs Army77–87
A week or more of rest.
Georgetown
16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UConn51–67
- Wvs Villanova78–64
- Wvs DePaul63–56
- Wvs Providence80–79
- L@ St John's69–72
A week or more of rest.