Capital One Arena · at Georgetown
#314L-MDLoyola MD
@
#64GTWNGeorgetown
LineGTWN -23.5moved 1 toward L-MD
Total150.5no move
Season records: Loyola MD and Georgetown
L-MDThis seasonGTWN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GTWN 88–61 · win probability GTWN 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
GTWN -23.5
moved 1 toward L-MD
Total
150.5
model 149.3 · Under by 1
Model edge
GTWN by 3
model vs market
Public on the spread
73% L-MD
67% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GTWN has more of the edges

L-MD 0, GTWN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GTWNBig
L-MD offense vs GTWN defense
Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 46th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
L-MD has played the 299th-hardest schedule, GTWN the 47th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GTWNBig
GTWN offense vs L-MD defense
Offense 75th of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings
GTWNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7; GTWN 49.6 and allows 50.0
GTWNSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: L-MD 29.9, GTWN 37.3. Allowed: L-MD 32.7, GTWN 33.9
GTWNSmall
Home court
GTWN at home. This season: GTWN 0-0 at home, L-MD 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: L-MD plays 69.3 a game (165th fastest), GTWN 67.8 (238th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%; GTWN hits 31.8% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 47.2% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: L-MD 27.6%, GTWN 32.5%. Defensive: L-MD 71.0%, GTWN 68.5%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: L-MD 15.4%, GTWN 15.8%. Forced: L-MD 15.4%, GTWN 16.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: L-MD 33%, GTWN 38%. Transfers in: L-MD 5, GTWN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward L-MD
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
L-MD +2500 · GTWN -10000
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened GTWN -24.5 · now GTWN -23.5 · moved 1 toward L-MDmodel GTWN -26.5
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 149.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
L-MD +23.5SpreadGTWN -23.5
Bets
Money
Over 150.5TotalUnder 150.5
Bets
Money
L-MDWinnerGTWN
Bets
Money
Money is 34 pts ahead of bets on L-MD

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
L-MDGTWNOverUnderL-MDGTWN
BetMGMMGM-23.5-110+23.5-110150.5-110150.5-110+2200-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-23.5-110+23.5-110150-110150-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-24.5-132+24.5+104150.5-112150.5-114——
BovadaBovada-23.5-110+23.5-110150-110150-110——
DraftKingsDK-23.5-110+23.5-110150.5-110150.5-110+2500-9000
FanDuelFD-23.5-110+23.5-110151.5-115151.5-105+2500-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-23.5-106+23.5-106150-108150-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadGTWN -23.5GTWN -26.5GTWN +3.0
Total150.5149.3Under 1.2
Projected score—L-MD 61.4 · GTWN 87.9

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadGTWN -15.7—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreL-MD 27.1 · GTWN 42.7—

Georgetown has the better starters

Position by position: Loyola MD 0, Georgetown 4, even 1
Loyola MDBetterGeorgetown
G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
GTWNSmall
G V. Miller TR10.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 74
G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21
GTWNBig
F C. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 57
F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4
GTWNBig
F J. Parker TR9.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 79
F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11
GTWNBig
C V. Iwuchukwu11.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 89
F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C C. Machot TR8.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 78
Loyola MDBetterGeorgetown
L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5
GTWNBig
GTWN defense46th of 366 · +2.3
L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1
GTWNBig
GTWN offense75th of 366 · +1.3
Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players
GTWNSmall
Backcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players
GTWNBig
Frontcourt+6.5 · 4 players
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
GTWNBig
Bench+1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestL-MD betterGTWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Loyola MD
Guards
T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew
Forwards
S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR
Georgetown
Guards
V. Miller26 min · TRJ. Lowe19 min · TRE. Jackson18 min · TRK. Mulready17 minM. Moses1 minM. Van Raaphorst1 min
Forwards
C. Williams30 minJ. Parker22 min · TRJ. CaldwellNewP. PastreNew
Centers
V. Iwuchukwu23 minC. Machot20 min · TRS. Diouf4 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
L-MDGTWN
Scoring
73.7 #212Points per game73.6 #215
1.06 #227Points per possession1.09 #165
69.3 #165Pace (possessions)67.8 #238
Shooting
50.4 #219Effective FG%49.6 #257
32.5 #2513-point %31.8 #285
47.2 #303-point attempt rate35.2 #271
29.9 #312Free throw rate37.3 #121
Possessions
15.4 #101Turnover rate15.8 #120
27.6 #279Offensive rebound rate32.5 #107
12.6 #246Assists per game14.8 #101
Defense
78.5 #280Points allowed72.9 #130
1.14 #304Points allowed per possession1.08 #147
54.7 #321Opponent effective FG%50.0 #96
32.8 #106Opponent 3-point %33.3 #139
15.4 #261Turnovers forced16.2 #211
71.0 #103Defensive rebound rate68.5 #228
6.1 #221Steals per game6.5 #182
3.4 #156Blocks per game3.6 #130

Loyola MD

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Colgate77–90
  • W@ Holy Cross76–62
  • Lvs Navy51–78
  • L@ Colgate98–101
  • Lvs Army77–87

A week or more of rest.

Georgetown

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn51–67
  • Wvs Villanova78–64
  • Wvs DePaul63–56
  • Wvs Providence80–79
  • L@ St John's69–72

A week or more of rest.