1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. MONM @ SJU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Monmouth Hawks at St. John's Red Storm

Carnesecca Arena · at St John's
#155MONMMonmouth
@
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
LineSJU -27.5no move
Total153.5up 1 from 152.5
MONMThis seasonSJU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 90–61 · win probability SJU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SJU -27.5
no move since the open
Total
153.5
model 150.6 · Under by 3
Model edge
SJU by 1
model vs market
Public on the spread
95% MONM
96% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

MONM 0, SJU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
MONM has played the 190th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SJUBig
MONM offense vs SJU defense
Offense 173rd of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
SJUBig
SJU offense vs MONM defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 144th, on the model’s ratings
SJUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONM 31.2%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: MONM 67.2%, SJU 70.1%
SJUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONM 32.7, SJU 40.2. Allowed: MONM 32.2, SJU 31.8
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MONM plays 67.9 a game (234th fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points
SJUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONM 49.6 and allows 50.0; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5
SJUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONM 16.7%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: MONM 19.8%, SJU 19.1%
SJUSmall
Home court
SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, MONM 0-0 away
SJUSmall
Three-pointers
MONM hits 34.2% and allows 33.9%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 34.4% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONM 37%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: MONM 5, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MONM +4000 · SJU -50000
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SJU -27.5 · unchangedmodel SJU -28.5
Opened 152.5 · now 153 · moved 0.5 upmodel 150.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
MONM +27.5SpreadSJU -27.5
Bets
Money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
MONMWinnerSJU
Bets
Money
Money leans MONM · 53 pts more of the money than of the bets
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MONMSJUOverUnderMONMSJU
BetMGMMGM——153.5-105153.5-115+3300-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-27.5-105+27.5-115153-110153-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-27.5-115+27.5-107153.5-107153.5-117——
BetUSBetUS-27.5-105+27.5-115153-110153-110——
BovadaBovada-27.5-105+27.5-115153-115153-105——
DraftKingsDK-27.5-105+27.5-115153.5-105153.5-115+4000-50000
FanDuelFD-27.5-110+27.5-110152.5-115152.5-105+5500-50000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-27.5-101+27.5-111153-108153-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSJU -27.5SJU -28.5SJU +1.0
Total153.5150.6Under 2.9
Projected score—MONM 61.1 · SJU 89.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSJU -16.8—
1H total70.4—
1H projected scoreMONM 26.8 · SJU 43.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Monmouth 0, St John's 4, even 1
MonmouthBetterSt John's
G J. Collins6.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 18
SJUBig
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
G J. Sanders TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.4 ast Score 39
SJUBig
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
G L. Walker TR14.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
G A. Walker TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 47
SJUBig
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
F S. Spartalis10.5 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 54
SJUBig
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
MonmouthBetterSt John's
MONM offense173rd of 366 · -5.3
SJUBig
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
MONM defense144th of 366 · -3.1
SJUBig
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players
SJUBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
SJUBig
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
MONMSmall
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONM betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Monmouth
Guards
J. Collins35 minJ. Sanders30 min · TRL. Walker28 min · TRA. Walker28 min · TRM. Durr21 min · TRJ. Dobuol6 min
Forwards
S. Spartalis24 minO. Harvey3 minS. Osei3 min · TRQ. Peters2 minD. PerryNewS. MarjanovicNew
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONMSJU
Scoring
72.0 #241Points per game80.9 #45
1.07 #212Points per possession1.14 #68
67.9 #234Pace (possessions)70.8 #82
Shooting
49.6 #259Effective FG%51.0 #192
34.2 #1563-point %33.5 #197
34.4 #2883-point attempt rate35.2 #272
32.7 #244Free throw rate40.2 #57
Possessions
16.7 #176Turnover rate14.4 #38
31.2 #157Offensive rebound rate35.2 #43
13.7 #167Assists per game16.1 #44
Defense
70.9 #73Points allowed69.7 #59
1.04 #74Points allowed per possession0.98 #15
50.0 #103Opponent effective FG%47.5 #32
33.9 #174Opponent 3-point %31.3 #39
19.8 #28Turnovers forced19.1 #46
67.2 #287Defensive rebound rate70.1 #154
7.6 #69Steals per game7.7 #58
4.2 #57Blocks per game4.8 #22
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Monmouth

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra69–75
  • Wvs Campbell74–64
  • Wvs Drexel65–57
  • W@ Northeastern89–83
  • Wvs Elon73–57

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.