Syracuse Orange at St. John's Red Storm: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at St John's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Syracuse and St John's
SYR	This season	SJU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 85–70 · win probability SJU 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

SYR 0, SJU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SJUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SYR 29.2%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: SYR 66.4%, SJU 70.1%

SJUSmall

Three-pointers

SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 37.1% and 35.2% of their shots

SJUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SYR 15.9%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: SYR 17.4%, SJU 19.1%

SJUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SYR 35.1, SJU 40.2. Allowed: SYR 32.6, SJU 31.8

SJUSmall

SJU offense vs SYR defense

Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SYR has played the 67th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SJUSmall

Home court

SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, SYR 0-0 away

SJUSmall

SYR offense vs SJU defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SYR plays 69.1 a game (173rd fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SYR 19%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: SYR 6, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SJU -15.7	—
Total	—	154.8	—
Projected score	—	SYR 69.5 · SJU 85.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJU -9.2	—
1H total	72.3	—
1H projected score	SYR 31.6 · SJU 40.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	4-5	—
SJU WWWLW	22-15	59%	11-9	—

Venue/role: SYR away; SJU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17
SJU OUUUO	14-23	38%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SJU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs COR	W82–72WU
Nov 21	vs LAF	W97–63WO
Nov 25	vs UALB	W102–85WO

St John's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs SIE	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs ORE	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs COLU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SYR 0–1 SJUSJU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SYR 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2022-23	SYR 69 vs SJU 76	SJU -3.5	SJU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

St John's

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-23

38% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W L W W L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W W W L L W W W L W L W L W L W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-2338%

O O U U O O U U U U U U O U U O O O U O O U O O U U U U U U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUIN	W 108-74	-26.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 8	vsALA	L 96-103	-4.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 15	vsW&M	W 93-60	-28.5	W +4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 20	vsBUCK	W 97-49	-28.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsISU	L 82-83	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsBAY	W 96-81	-5.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsAUB	L 74-85	-4.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 6	vsMISS	W 63-58	-13.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsIONA	W 91-64	-28.5	L −1.5	159.5	U 155
Dec 16	vsDEP	W 79-66	-19.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsUK	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsHARV	W 85-59	-26.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 31	@GTWN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 3	vsPROV	L 71-77	-14.5	L −20.5	166.5	U 148
Jan 6	@BTLR	W 84-70	-4.5	W +9.5	162.5	U 154
Jan 10	@CREI	W 90-73	-2.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsMARQ	W 92-68	-15.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 17	@VILL	W 86-79	-2.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 20	vsHALL	W 65-60	-11.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 24	@XAV	W 88-83	-8.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	vsBTLR	W 92-70	-12.5	W +9.5	158.5	O 162
Feb 3	@DEP	W 68-56	-9.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 6	vsCONN	W 81-72	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 9	vsXAV	W 87-82	-16.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	@PROV	W 79-69	-6.5	W +3.5	167.5	U 148
Feb 18	@MARQ	W 76-70	-8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 21	vsCREI	W 81-52	-12.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	@CONN	L 40-72	+5.5	L −26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsVILL	W 89-57	-7.5	W +24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 3	vsGTWN	W 72-69	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 141
Mar 6	@HALL	W 72-65	-5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsPROV	W 85-72	-11.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 157
Mar 13	vsHALL	W 78-68	-8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 146
Mar 14	vsCONN	W 72-52	+2.5	W +22.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsUNI	W 79-53	-10.5	W +15.5	133.5	U 132
Mar 22	vsKU	W 67-65	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 132
Mar 27	vsDUKE	L 75-80	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+7.5

ALA

L 96-103

−11.5

W&M

W 93-60

+4.5

BUCK

W 97-49

+19.5

ISU

L 82-83

+1.5

BAY

W 96-81

+9.5

AUB

L 74-85

−15.5

MISS

W 63-58

−8.5

IONA

W 91-64

−1.5

DEP

W 79-66

−6.5

L 66-78

−10.5

HARV

W 85-59

−0.5

GTWN

W 95-83

+3.5

PROV

L 71-77

−20.5

BTLR

W 84-70

+9.5

CREI

W 90-73

+14.5

MARQ

W 92-68

+8.5

VILL

W 86-79

+4.5

HALL

W 65-60

−6.5

XAV

W 88-83

−3.5

BTLR

W 92-70

+9.5

DEP

W 68-56

+2.5

CONN

W 81-72

+10.5

XAV

W 87-82

−11.5

PROV

W 79-69

+3.5

MARQ

W 76-70

−2.5

CREI

W 81-52

+16.5

CONN

L 40-72

−26.5

VILL

W 89-57

+24.5

GTWN

W 72-69

−12.5

HALL

W 72-65

+1.5

PROV

W 85-72

+1.5

HALL

W 78-68

+1.5

CONN

W 72-52

+22.5

UNI

W 79-53

+15.5

W 67-65

−1.5

DUKE

L 75-80

+1.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+25.5

ALA

L 96-103

+26.5

W&M

W 93-60

−26.5

BUCK

W 97-49

−12.5

ISU

L 82-83

+6.5

BAY

W 96-81

+17.5

AUB

L 74-85

−7.5

MISS

W 63-58

−30.5

IONA

W 91-64

−4.5

DEP

W 79-66

−2.5

L 66-78

−10.5

HARV

W 85-59

−1.5

GTWN

W 95-83

+25.5

PROV

L 71-77

−18.5

BTLR

W 84-70

−8.5

CREI

W 90-73

+10.5

MARQ

W 92-68

+4.5

VILL

W 86-79

+17.5

HALL

W 65-60

−20.5

XAV

W 88-83

+11.5

BTLR

W 92-70

+3.5

DEP

W 68-56

−21.5

CONN

W 81-72

+9.5

XAV

W 87-82

+9.5

PROV

W 79-69

−19.5

MARQ

W 76-70

−11.5

CREI

W 81-52

−23.5

CONN

L 40-72

−33.5

VILL

W 89-57

−1.5

GTWN

W 72-69

−7.5

HALL

W 72-65

−1.5

PROV

W 85-72

−1.5

HALL

W 78-68

+10.5

CONN

W 72-52

−15.5

UNI

W 79-53

−1.5

W 67-65

−12.5

DUKE

L 75-80

+14.5

over 14under 23avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Syracuse 0, St John's 3, even 2

SyracuseBetterSt John's

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

Even

G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

Even

G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

SJUSmall

F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

SJUSmall

F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

SJUSmall

F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

SyracuseBetterSt John's

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Even

SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

SJUSmall

SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

SJUBig

Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

SYRBig

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSYR betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

St John's

Guards

T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min

Forwards

K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew

Centers

T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SYR75.0 #163

SJU80.9 #45

Points per possession

SYR1.08 #174

SJU1.14 #68

Pace (possessions)

SYR69.1 #173

SJU70.8 #82

Shooting

Effective FG%

SYR52.6 #122

SJU51.0 #192

3-point %

SYR32.9 #239

SJU33.5 #197

3-point attempt rate

SYR37.1 #226

SJU35.2 #272

Free throw rate

SYR35.1 #171

SJU40.2 #57

Possessions

Turnover rate

SYR15.9 #134

SJU14.4 #38

Offensive rebound rate

SYR29.2 #228

SJU35.2 #43

Assists per game

SYR12.8 #225

SJU16.1 #44

Defense

Points allowed

SYR74.3 #163

SJU69.7 #59

Points allowed per possession

SYR1.07 #144

SJU0.98 #15

Opponent effective FG%

SYR50.3 #116

SJU47.5 #32

Opponent 3-point %

SYR34.1 #186

SJU31.3 #39

Turnovers forced

SYR17.4 #125

SJU19.1 #46

Defensive rebound rate

SYR66.4 #310

SJU70.1 #154

Steals per game

SYR6.2 #214

SJU7.7 #58

Blocks per game

SYR5.9 #4

SJU4.8 #22

SYR		SJU
Scoring
75.0 #163	Points per game	80.9 #45
1.08 #174	Points per possession	1.14 #68
69.1 #173	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #82
Shooting
52.6 #122	Effective FG%	51.0 #192
32.9 #239	3-point %	33.5 #197
37.1 #226	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #272
35.1 #171	Free throw rate	40.2 #57
Possessions
15.9 #134	Turnover rate	14.4 #38
29.2 #228	Offensive rebound rate	35.2 #43
12.8 #225	Assists per game	16.1 #44
Defense
74.3 #163	Points allowed	69.7 #59
1.07 #144	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #15
50.3 #116	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #32
34.1 #186	Opponent 3-point %	31.3 #39
17.4 #125	Turnovers forced	19.1 #46
66.4 #310	Defensive rebound rate	70.1 #154
6.2 #214	Steals per game	7.7 #58
5.9 #4	Blocks per game	4.8 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke75–80
Wvs Kansas67–65
Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
Wvs UConn72–52
Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse Orange at St. John's Red Storm

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Syracuse

St John's

St John's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Syracuse

St John's