1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. SIE @ SJU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Siena Saints at St. John's Red Storm

Carnesecca Arena · at St John's
#260SIESiena
@
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SIEThis seasonSJU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJU 91–57 · win probability SJU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJU has more of the edges

SIE 0, SJU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SIE has played the 320th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SJUBig
SIE offense vs SJU defense
Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
SJUBig
SJU offense vs SIE defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: SIE plays 64.4 a game (354th fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points
SJUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SIE 15.8%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: SIE 17.0%, SJU 19.1%
SJUSmall
Three-pointers
SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 32.2% and 35.2% of their shots
SJUSmall
Home court
SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, SIE 0-0 away
SJUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SIE 33.4, SJU 40.2. Allowed: SIE 27.5, SJU 31.8
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SIE 31.8%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: SIE 70.5%, SJU 70.1%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SIE 28%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: SIE 1, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SJU -34.1—
Total—147.7—
Projected score—SIE 56.8 · SJU 90.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSJU -20.1—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreSIE 24.5 · SJU 44.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Siena 0, St John's 3, even 2
SienaBetterSt John's
G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30
SJUBig
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17
SJUBig
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12
SJUBig
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
SienaBetterSt John's
SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6
SJUBig
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7
SJUBig
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players
SJUBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSIE betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Siena
Guards
T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SIESJU
Scoring
70.4 #276Points per game80.9 #45
1.09 #154Points per possession1.14 #68
64.4 #354Pace (possessions)70.8 #82
Shooting
50.4 #222Effective FG%51.0 #192
30.6 #3303-point %33.5 #197
32.2 #3273-point attempt rate35.2 #272
33.4 #226Free throw rate40.2 #57
Possessions
15.8 #126Turnover rate14.4 #38
31.8 #133Offensive rebound rate35.2 #43
13.5 #182Assists per game16.1 #44
Defense
65.8 #12Points allowed69.7 #59
1.02 #44Points allowed per possession0.98 #15
48.5 #48Opponent effective FG%47.5 #32
32.4 #82Opponent 3-point %31.3 #39
17.0 #154Turnovers forced19.1 #46
70.5 #133Defensive rebound rate70.1 #154
5.8 #262Steals per game7.7 #58
3.1 #205Blocks per game4.8 #22
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke65–71
  • Wvs Merrimack64–54
  • Wvs Fairfield76–61
  • Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
  • Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.