Niagara Purple Eagles at Siena Saints: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 5, 7:00 PM ETMVP Arena · at Siena · Conference game

#346NIANiagara54final

Final

#259SIESiena83▲ winner

Closing lineSIE -12.5✓ SIE covered by 16.5

Closing total129.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Niagara and Siena
NIA	This season	SIE
2-5	Record	7-2
2-5	ATS	5-4
3-4	O/U	2-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIA 60–74 SIE · ✓ SIE (88%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIA	21	33	54
SIE	46	37	83

1st half: NIA 21, SIE 46 (SIE by 25). The model had SIE by 8.1 and a total of 62.4 (actual 67).

Team stats

NIA		SIE
22-60 37%	Field goals	31-59 53%
4-22 18%	3-pointers	11-24 46%
6-11 55%	Free throws	10-14 71%
26 7 off	Rebounds	43 9 off
9	Assists	17
7	Steals	3
5	Blocks	8
7	Turnovers	9
9	Fouls	10
34	Points in paint	30
8	Fast-break points	18

Players

NIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Reggie Prudhomme G	27	10	0	2	4-8	2-4
Justin Hawkins F	25	6	5	1	3-10	0-2
Vice Zanki F	19	2	3	0	1-4	0-2
Justin Page G	17	1	1	1	0-4	0-2
Will Shortt F	10	3	1	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Kabeya Tshibangu C	21	6	3	2	3-4	0-0
Landon Williams G	20	7	2	0	3-6	1-4
Brian Griffith G	18	4	1	2	2-8	0-3
Josiah Sabino G	16	7	4	0	2-5	0-0
Drew Larson F	12	0	2	1	0-2	0-2
AJ McBride G	9	3	2	0	1-1	0-0
Gael Dalmau G	6	5	0	0	2-4	1-3

Did not play: Trenton Walters

SIE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justice Shoats G	32	15	2	8	7-17	1-1
Gavin Doty G	28	16	8	0	6-10	3-6
Brendan Coyle G	24	13	8	1	5-8	2-5
Antonio Chandler F	22	3	5	1	1-3	0-0
Tasman Goodrick F	17	4	6	2	2-3	0-0
Bench
Francis Folefac F	24	8	9	2	3-3	0-0
Isaiah Henderson G	21	13	1	0	4-5	3-4
Christian Jones G	18	9	1	3	2-6	2-6
Cooper Nadler G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Mosi Clayton G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Chris Torres G	3	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Danny Murray G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tajae Jones, Owen Schlager, Riley Mulvey, Marcus Jackson, Reid Ducharme

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIE -12.5	SIE -13.7	SIE +1.2	W SIE covered
Total	129.5	133.2	Over 3.7	W Over
Projected score	—	NIA 59.7 · SIE 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIE -8.1	SIE -25.0
1H total	62.4	67
1H projected score	NIA 27.2 · SIE 35.3	NIA 21 · SIE 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIA WLLLL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-5
SIE LLWWL	5-4	56%	1-2	4-4

Venue/role: NIA away, as underdog; SIE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIA UOUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
SIE UOUUU	2-7	22%	7-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIAlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%
SIElast 9	7-2 78%	5-4 56%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NIA 6–4 SIENIA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NIA 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2024-25	NIA 60 @ SIE 94	SIE -5.5	SIE W
Dec 6, 2024-25	SIE 68 @ NIA 69	NIA -2.5	SIE W
Mar 12, 2023-24	SIE 65 vs NIA 67	NIA -10.5	SIE W
Mar 7, 2023-24	NIA 66 @ SIE 59	SIE +7.5	SIE W
Jan 15, 2023-24	SIE 93 @ NIA 88	NIA -5.5	SIE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Niagara

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 22	vsHOW	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 29	vsDETM	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

HOW

L 70-80

−5.5

DETM

L 66-70

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

HOW

L 70-80

+11.5

DETM

L 66-70

−6.5

over 3under 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Siena

9 games played

Straight up

7-2

78% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-7

22% overs · avg −8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-278%

W W L L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-456%

W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-722%

U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 24	@HC	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 28	vsLONG	W 70-63	-5.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AMER	W 59-55	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsME	W 64-60	-9.5	L −5.5	127.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

W 73-69

−5.5

LONG

W 70-63

+1.5

AMER

W 59-55

+1.5

W 64-60

−5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

W 73-69

+4.5

LONG

W 70-63

−12.5

AMER

W 59-55

−23.5

W 64-60

−3.5

over 2under 7avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Niagara Purple Eagles at Siena Saints

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Niagara

Siena

Niagara

Siena