Siena Saints at Holy Cross Crusaders: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 6:00 PM ETHart Center Arena · at Holy Cross

#260SIESiena73▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSIE -9.5✓ HC covered by 5.5

Closing total137.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Siena and Holy Cross
SIE	This season	HC
3-2	Record	1-5
3-2	ATS	3-3
1-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SIE 73–67 HC · ✓ SIE (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SIE	39	34	73
HC	39	30	69

1st half: SIE 39, HC 39 (tied). The model had SIE by 3.7 and a total of 65.4 (actual 78).

Team stats

SIE		HC
32-55 58%	Field goals	28-52 54%
2-11 18%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
7-9 78%	Free throws	7-10 70%
25 4 off	Rebounds	24 3 off
14	Assists	13
9	Steals	5
1	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	12
8	Fouls	14
50	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	4

Players

SIE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gavin Doty G	38	6	2	4	2-8	0-2
Brendan Coyle G	37	10	6	0	3-5	1-3
Justice Shoats G	36	22	4	5	11-16	0-1
Tasman Goodrick F	18	12	3	0	5-6	0-1
Antonio Chandler F	16	4	0	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Francis Folefac F	31	14	5	2	7-9	0-0
Christian Jones G	17	5	1	3	2-5	1-3
Isaiah Henderson G	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Danny Murray, Owen Schlager, Cooper Nadler, Riley Mulvey, Tajae Jones, Chris Torres, Mosi Clayton, Marcus Jackson, Reid Ducharme

HC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aiden Disu F	36	19	8	2	7-11	1-2
Tyler Boston G	31	10	2	4	4-7	2-4
Joe Nugent F	28	8	1	1	4-8	0-4
Gabe Warren G	27	10	1	3	3-3	1-1
Aidan Richard F	26	7	3	1	3-8	1-5
Bench
DeAndre Williams G	17	5	3	2	2-4	1-2
Will Aljancic F	14	6	2	0	3-6	0-1
John St. Germain III G	12	2	1	0	1-4	0-0
Declan Ryan F	9	2	3	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jude Haigh, Tim Finau, Ethan Clark, Austin Mejia, Chuck Hare, Jaden Kirkwood, Ben Capron

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIE -9.5	SIE -5.8	HC +3.7	W HC covered
Total	137.5	139.6	Over 2.1	W Over
Projected score	—	SIE 72.7 · HC 66.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIE -3.7	PK
1H total	65.4	78
1H projected score	SIE 34.5 · HC 30.9	SIE 39 · HC 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIE WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-2
HC LWWLL	3-3	50%	—	3-3

Venue/role: SIE away, as favorite; HC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIE UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2
HC UOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIElast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
HClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIE 3–1 HCSIE leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · SIE 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2024-25	HC 78 @ SIE 70	SIE -4.5	HC W
Nov 6, 2023-24	HC 71 @ SIE 73	SIE -6.5	HC W
Nov 7, 2022-23	SIE 75 @ HC 68	HC +1.5	SIE W
Dec 11, 2021-22	SIE 72 @ HC 59	HC +5.5	SIE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Siena

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

over 1under 4avg −8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Holy Cross

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 16	vsHAMP	W 67-61	+4.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 128
Nov 18	@BRWN	L 49-68	+2.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 21	@SHU	L 66-79	+7.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

HAMP

W 67-61

+10.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−16.5

SHU

L 66-79

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

HAMP

W 67-61

−20.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−24.5

SHU

L 66-79

−7.5

over 2under 4avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Siena Saints at Holy Cross Crusaders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Siena

Holy Cross

Siena

Holy Cross