Holy Cross Crusaders at Brown Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · at Brown

Final

#156BRWNBrown68▲ winner

Closing lineBRWN -2.5✓ BRWN covered by 16.5

Closing total141.5Under by 24.5

Season records: Holy Cross and Brown
HC	This season	BRWN
1-3	Record	0-4
3-1	ATS	1-3
2-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HC 73–75 BRWN · ✓ BRWN (58%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HC	21	28	49
BRWN	37	31	68

1st half: HC 21, BRWN 37 (BRWN by 16). The model had BRWN by 1.1 and a total of 68.9 (actual 58).

Team stats

HC		BRWN
18-52 35%	Field goals	25-52 48%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
5-11 45%	Free throws	9-11 82%
29 9 off	Rebounds	37 8 off
8	Assists	14
7	Steals	8
0	Blocks	6
13	Turnovers	12
12	Fouls	18
16	Points in paint	26
11	Fast-break points	11

Players

HC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joe Nugent F	35	17	6	1	6-12	4-9
Gabe Warren G	30	13	3	1	5-8	1-2
Aidan Richard F	29	3	7	1	1-5	1-5
Tyler Boston G	26	6	3	2	2-10	1-2
Aiden Disu F	24	7	1	0	3-7	1-3
Bench
DeAndre Williams G	22	3	1	1	1-4	0-1
John St. Germain III G	12	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Declan Ryan F	12	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Jude Haigh F	6	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Jaden Kirkwood G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Chuck Hare F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tim Finau, Ethan Clark, Austin Mejia, Will Aljancic, Ben Capron

BRWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Langham G	35	18	1	2	7-16	2-7
N'famara Dabo F	30	11	12	0	4-6	0-0
Jeremiah Jenkins G	23	5	8	6	2-4	1-3
David Rochester G	21	6	1	3	2-2	0-0
Luke Paragon G	17	8	5	0	2-5	2-5
Bench
Adrian Uchidiuno G	26	16	0	2	6-9	4-6
Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson G	19	2	4	1	1-6	0-3
Brady Loughlin G	12	0	2	0	0-3	0-3
Charlie O'Sullivan F	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Wyatt DeGraaf F	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Drew Kania F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jonah Drezner G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jerrell Barron Jr., AJ Lesburt Jr., Landon Lewis

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRWN -2.5	BRWN -2.2	HC +0.3	L BRWN covered
Total	141.5	147.1	Over 5.6	L Under
Projected score	—	HC 72.5 · BRWN 74.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -1.1	BRWN -16.0
1H total	68.9	58
1H projected score	HC 33.9 · BRWN 35	HC 21 · BRWN 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HC WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1
BRWN LWLL	1-3	25%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: HC away, as underdog; BRWN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HC OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3
BRWN UOOU	2-2	50%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HClast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
BRWNlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HC 1–0 BRWNHC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HC 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	HC 73 @ BRWN 65	BRWN -7.5	HC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Holy Cross

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 16	vsHAMP	W 67-61	+4.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

HAMP

W 67-61

+10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

HAMP

W 67-61

−20.5

over 2under 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Brown

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +10 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

over 2under 2avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Brown Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Holy Cross

Brown

Holy Cross

Brown