Hampton Pirates at Boston College Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETConte Forum · at Boston College

#159HAMPHampton52final

Final

Closing lineBC -12.5✓ HAMP covered by 1.5

Closing total135.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Hampton and Boston College
HAMP	This season	BC
1-3	Record	2-2
2-2	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HAMP 65–78 BC · ✓ BC (86%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HAMP	26	26	52
BC	37	26	63

1st half: HAMP 26, BC 37 (BC by 11). The model had BC by 7.3 and a total of 66.9 (actual 63).

Team stats

HAMP		BC
21-60 35%	Field goals	22-56 39%
4-23 17%	3-pointers	5-27 19%
6-14 43%	Free throws	14-19 74%
39 15 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
4	Assists	11
6	Steals	5
3	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	10
18	Fouls	12
30	Points in paint	28
0	Fast-break points	10

Players

HAMP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzavier Long F	35	11	5	1	5-10	1-4
Daniel Johnson F	27	11	7	1	4-13	1-4
Etienne Strothers G	26	6	2	0	3-5	0-1
Josh Ogundele F	23	4	7	0	1-4	0-0
Quintin Cooper G	16	4	0	1	2-6	0-2
Bench
Christian Watson G	17	2	3	1	1-5	0-2
Michael Eley G	15	8	5	0	3-9	0-3
Kody Williams G	14	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Aidan Haskins G	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Elijah Kennedy G	9	6	0	0	2-3	2-3
Eunique Rink F	7	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Peter Oduro F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kellan Lewis G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hamza Asadallah, Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt

BC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Donald Hand Jr. G	33	7	5	0	3-12	0-5
Fred Payne G	28	14	1	3	5-10	2-7
Aidan Shaw F	25	4	8	3	1-3	0-2
Chase Forte G	20	3	5	0	0-3	0-2
Jayden Hastings F	16	4	5	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Boden Kapke F	25	10	2	0	4-10	0-2
Luka Toews G	20	8	3	4	3-5	0-2
Marko Radunovic F	13	5	3	0	2-4	1-2
Jason Asemota F	11	8	1	0	2-4	2-4
Caleb Steger G	9	0	2	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Akbar Waheed III, Will Eggemeier, Nick Petronio, Jack DiDonna, Jack Bailey, Kany Musungay

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BC -12.5	BC -12.4	HAMP +0.1	W HAMP covered
Total	135.5	142.7	Over 7.2	L Under
Projected score	—	HAMP 65.2 · BC 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BC -7.3	BC -11.0
1H total	66.9	63
1H projected score	HAMP 29.8 · BC 37.1	HAMP 26 · BC 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAMP WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1
BC LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: HAMP away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAMP OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
BC OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAMPlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
BClast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hampton

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MILW	L 86-90	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 11	@UVA	L 53-91	+24.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 14	@BRWN	W 72-63	+1.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsHC	L 61-67	-4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+1.5

UVA

L 53-91

−13.5

BRWN

W 72-63

+10.5

L 61-67

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+29.5

UVA

L 53-91

−4.5

BRWN

W 72-63

−4.5

L 61-67

−20.5

over 1under 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston College

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@FAU	L 78-83	+1.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 6	vsCIT	W 76-47	-15.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsCCSU	L 59-60	-17.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 15	@TEM	W 76-71	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

−3.5

CIT

W 76-47

+13.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−18.5

TEM

W 76-71

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

+12.5

CIT

W 76-47

−21.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−17.5

TEM

W 76-71

+4.5

over 2under 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hampton Pirates at Boston College Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hampton

Boston College

Hampton

Boston College